OCD Picks - Home of The 2009 Football Handicapping Champion
Up against the nation's elite handicappers as professionally monitored by Sports-Watch and the National Handicappers Bowl. Check out his NFL Football record, his College Football record, and his College Bowl record on SPORTSWATCH!
OC Dooley was also the NFL Over/Under totals champion as reported by The National Handicappers Bowl!
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*****Ranked NUMBER-ONE again for the 2010 NFL preseason as professionally monitored at (www.sports-watch.com)*****
Sizzling 11-3 NFL past nineteen days
5-1 NFL Best Bets since 8/20 (lone setback by HALF point)
NFL regular season Thursday opener one year ago (Titans-and-Under) SWEEPS
8-3 past eleven National-TV Football premium releases
Click on 4 Day package for all weekend releases (late breaking Thursday premium information 5:00 eastern)
OPENING COLLEGE 5-UNIT EVENT
WINS ON NATIONAL-TV LAST SATURDAY NIGHT
Fresno State 28-14 home triumph
TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET (Fresno State -2 at home versus Cincinnati in a 10:05 eastern kickoff broadcast nationally on ESPN2): Last year Fresno was extremely competitive in what resulted in a 28-20 loss on the scoreboard at Cincinnati. What caught my attention in that particular contest is that Fresno State actually CONTROLLED THE CLOCK and deserved to pull off the upset and late tonight they get a shot at revenge. There is some danger in this selection as Fresno has actually “failed” to cover the spread 8 of the past 9 games in front of their own home fans, but in almost all of those instances have been a victim of “overpricing” by the oddsmakers as they face mainly weaklings from the Western Athletic Conference. Since visiting Cincinnati was almost unbeatable a year ago (12-1) and has now won consecutive Big East Conference titles, overpricing is certainly not an issue this evening with Fresno who actually opened as a home underdog in this high profile ESPN2 televised contest. Following this game Fresno State will not be back in front of their home fans (10/2) for an ENTIRE MONTH which adds even more urgency to this particular game. One of the keys to winning a near “pick em” affair on the gridiron is to figure out which side has a better chance to dominate in the “trenches” where games are ultimately won or lost. One of the things that excites me about Fresno State is that they return ALL 5 of their offensive line starters from a year ago. I am aware that Fresno no longer has Ryan Mathews who led the nation in 2009 rushing, the veteran offensive line that has FOUR SENIORS lining up across the front will take some of the sting of his absence away. Fresno does have a pair of running backs who back in the 2008 campaign reached the “800 yard” plateau so that backfield is not exactly barren. Another critical factor when handicapping near “pick em” football affairs is SPECIAL TEAMS where the home team has a definitive edge. Keep an eye on Fresno’s Kevin Goessling who just happens to be one of the top kickers in the entire country. Not only did Goessling nail 15-of-16 field goal attempts last campaign, he nailed LONG kicks of 50-and-52 yards in length. Ever since Pat Hill has been head coach Fresno State has built a reputation as being one of the nation’s most “fearless” teams who will play any opponent in any location. Since 1997 when Hill took control, Fresno State has faced at least 2 different “big six conference” opponents on the road each season logging a 7-21 overall record. Aggressive scheduling creates opportunities for interesting matchups and “statement” games, but it also leaves Bulldog Stadium empty for an extra weekend or two. In 2010 the Fresno faithful will have more opportunities to root for the home team as the Bulldogs have 78 different HOME games for the first time since way back in 1994. It is almost unheard of for Fresno to lure a “big six conference” opponent out west to their own Stadium which makes this evening a rare and unique event. Cincinnati with Brian Kelly as their head coach won a grand total of 33 games and a pair of Big East championship crowns, but now Kelly is the headman at Notre Dame. Not only have the Bearcats lost their leader, they also have graduated star wide receiver Mardy Gilyard who also excelled in SPECIAL TEAMS as a lethal return man. The last time we saw Cincinnati on the field was an ugly 51-24 loss in the Sugar Bowl as the team that ranked “dead last” in Big East total defense was burned once again. Once again it is almost unheard of for a “big six conference” team to travel out west to Fresno and tonight will be the only HOME affair for the Bulldogs (10/2) for almost a solid month
2010 PREMIUM FOOTBALL PROSPERITY
--16-10 ALL FOOTBALL SINCE 8/20
--NFL Preseason concludes 11-3 including "5-1" mark with BEST BETS
--All rare "5 Unit" Best Bet bombshells 5-1 since late May (including baseball)
--Opening football "5 Unit" event Rams (+8) OUTRIGHT at Patriots on 8/26
--Opening college "5 Unit" event Fresno State (-2) COVERS in 28-14 home triumph 9/4
--All nationally televised football (NBC, CBS, Fox, ESPN, ABC) sensational 8-3 since 8/20 including college
---6-5 all Best Bets since 8/20
--All premium releases 14-12 in September (including baseball which is "9-4" so far)
--All premium TOTALS 9-2 tear
--All NFL Preseason BEST BETS finish 6-3
--"4-7" college out of the gate (courtesy of a sluggish 1-4 Saturday and 0-2 Monday)
11-3 NFL PREMIUM SINCE 8/20
Including 5-1 with "Best Bets"
--8/20 BEST BET Eagles/Bengals UNDER (38) WINS in 22-9 contest on Fox-TV
--8/21 BEST BET Lions (+3) OUTRIGHT 25-20 road upset at Broncos
--8/21 Raiders (+2) OUTRIGHT 32-17 upset at Bears
--8/21 Steelers/Giants UNDER (33') fails in a 24-17 NFL Network telecast
--8/22 the 49ers (-2') COVER in a 15-10 NBC primetime triumph versus Vikings
--8/23 Cardinals/Titans UNDER (37') WINS in a 24-10 ESPN final verdict
--8/26 opening football "5 UNIT" Best Bet bombshell Rams (+8) OUTRIGHT road upset at Patriots
--8/27 Chiefs (+2) fail to cover by ONE point in 20-17 home setback versus Eagles
--8/27 Eagles/Chiefs UNDER (39') WINS in a contest with 37 combined points scored
--8/28 BEST BET Panthers (-3) COVER in 15-7 home triumph versus Titans
--8/28 Seahawks/Vikings UNDER (39) WINS in 24-13 final verdict
--8/29 BEST BET Broncos (+2') OUTRIGHT WIN in 34-17 romp of Steelers
--9/2 BEST BET Chiefs (-4') fail by a HOOK in what was a 17-13 straight-up triumph at home
--9/2 Patriots/Giants UNDER (37') WINS in a 20-17 NFL Network telecast
*****Going for winning football season #6 in a row*****
ALL INCLUSIVE 2010/2011 FOOTBALL SEASON PACKAGE IS NOW AVAILABLE (check out the right hand portion of this web page)
OPENING NFL "5 UNIT" EVENT (underdog Rams OUTRIGHT on 8/26)
TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” FOOTBALL REDZONE BEST BET (Rams +8 at Patriots in a 7:35 eastern kickoff): Due to injury this evening marks the first start for quarterback Sam Bradford since last October when as a member of Oklahoma he was hurt in the traditional “red river rivalry” against Texas. Despite being sidelined for a substantial amount of time, Bradford will be receiving $50-million dollars of guaranteed money from the Rams who just officially got a new owner. During the preseason most quality teams with a track record of success expose “front line veterans” to just enough action where the various personnel can get their timing down. But for the “1-15” Rams these seemingly meaningless exhibition contests are vitally important not only to gain confidence, but also to energize the fan base. Poor teams like St. Louis tend to thrive in preseason ROAD affairs knowing that local fans can watch the game live and not be subject to a possible league “black out” when the stands are not completely full. After getting pounded in week-one in front of their own fan base, St. Louis went on the ROAD last week and pulled off an OUTRIGHT 19-17 triumph even though a host of defenders (CB’s Kevin Dickey, Justin King and Jerome Murphy along with Safeties James Butler and Kevin Payne) did not take the field due to injury. One week ago St. Louis played in a driving RAIN storm which affected the reserves including Bradford, but the weather conditions this evening in New England just happen to be EXCELLENT. There has been plenty of offshore wagering activity on the Patriots who not only have won-and-covered both exhibition contests, but also appeared in a FOX-TV national telecast in Atlanta last week where fans across the country got to see the return of receiver Wes Welker from major knee surgery. The wagering public also has to be excited about superstar quarterback Tom Brady who so far has completed 15-of-20 pass attempts and already appears to be in midseason form. But the fact of the matter is that New England is suffering from serious ATTRITION and INJURY and that includes Brady who is in contract negotiations as we speak. Speaking of contract negotiations the Patriots starting offensive line is currently in shambles as Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins is threatening to sit out the season if not getting a preferred long term deal that the organization has always seem reluctant to do with their veterans. In five years Mankins has NEVER missed a start and is one of the reasons why Tom Brady is a superstar quarterback. Last year Brady was sacked only “once” in every 36.3 drop backs which was “second fewest” in all of football right behind a guy named Peyton Manning. While tonight’s home team is having issues across the front line, it has been woeful offensive line play that basically took the life and drive out of now former St. Louis starting quarterback Marc Bulger who has been reduced to reserve status currently in a Ravens uniform. Bulger has taken such a severe beating that he was actually considering an early retirement. Of course the Rams are now staking their future on Sam Bradford who tonight gets his first shot to IMPRESS the “first string” offense. What excites me is that tonight marks the first time that Bradford has had an opportunity to take the field at the same time that superstar running back Stephen Jackson (2009 NFC rushing champion) is also in the fold. To give you an idea just how important Jackson’s presence on the field is, the Rams a week ago gained 65 of their 172 total yards with their #1 player in the huddle. Even though St. Louis came away with a victory one week ago, Sam Bradford had 8 consecutive possessions where the team “did not” register a single first down. I just have a feeling that Bradford who is now playing with the “first string” will generate much more than the 30 total yards on 24 plays a week ago. According to the Rams head coach, football’s #1 overall draft pick will be a lot more comfortable now that Jackson will be on the field with him. Taking a look at this “St. Louis/New England series” they are dead EVEN (4-4) when meeting in the preseason. The last time these two teams squared off in a regular season clash was in 2008 AT New England where the Rams (23-16 final score) were competitive. It is worth noting that the 2010 preseason schedule sees New England facing 3 different quality opponents (Saints, Falcons, Giants). Tonight marks the ONLY preseason game where the Patriots are up against a losing organization which has led to an “over pricing” issue. Turning to the database here is a 70-PERCENT PRESEASON SYSTEM (47-20 past decade) which plays ON road underdogs like St. Louis (+3/+10) off a contest where the defense allowed “5’ or less” passing yards per attempt by the opposition. My research also indicates that preseason favorites like New England laying 3’-to-10 points who are coming off a spread triumph have actually FAILED to cover the spread the past decade (50-24) a whopping 68-PERCENT of the time. The bottom line is that tonight’s preseason contest is vitally important to the collective psyche of the Rams now that Sam Bradford will get a long look with the “first stringers”
97-97-7 ALL PREMIUM BASEBALL PAST 121 DAYS OF COVERAGE (small favorites, underdogs, totals)
120-109 PAST 102 DAYS OF COVERAGE OVERALL
ALL STAR BEST BET EVENT WINS
The first "5 UNIT" Best Bet of the baseball season WINS as the National League takes the mid-summer classic for the first time since 1996
TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” REDZONE ALL-STAR GAME BEST BET (National League +110 versus American League in a 8:20 eastern start on FOX-TV): Of course the big sports story is the sudden passing of former Yankees owner George Steinbrenner who built a legendary franchise into a recent success. Despite the Yankees long run of postseason berths it is almost unheard of in this day in age for a manager to make CONSECUTIVE appearances in the All-Star game which annually rewards the skippers of the prior World Series. This is a critical area where the National League has an advantage as Charlie Manuel is directing the senior circuit after gaining invaluable experience of juggling an All-Star roster in 2009. From his first press conference in Anaheim Manuel has repeatedly mentioned how important WINNING what is essentially is an exhibition game really is. In what is an ironic twist WINNING at all costs was the only thing that mattered to the now late George Steinbrenner The mid-summer classic has changed dramatically since 2004 as the triumphant league gets home field advantage in the World Series and we can see by the shaping of the respective rosters that the National League and Manuel in particular are setting themselves up to win in the LATE innings as the senior circuit has a large collection of speed, defense and position flexibility off the bench. One of the most controversial picks was the selection of Atlanta RESERVE Omar Infante who can literally play any position in the field and is a “contact” hitter who can handle the bat and pick up the clutch hit (.367 average with runners in scoring position). Other National League reserves who can play “small ball” off the bench with both speed and bunting ability are Michael Bourne and Chris Young while veteran Scott Rolen provides defensive prowess at the hot corner. Admittedly the American League starting lineup has an edge in the power department, but the National League has plenty of homerun capability (Ryan Howard, Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez) coming off the bench. Another area where the National League has an advantage in the latter innings tonight is in the bullpen where 3 different SETUP men can be called on. Even though the Pittsburgh Pirates continue to be the laughingstock of baseball their representative Evan Meek just happens to have a SUB-ONE ERA. One of the most prized pitching possessions that every team seeks annually is effective LEFTHANDERS and
NBA PLAYOFFS WRAP UP A SIZZLING 13-4 IN THE FINAL THREE WEEKS OF COVERAGE (including a "5 UNIT" Best Bet triumph in an epic Finals game-seven)
College basketball premium coverage concludes 14-5 including an UNDEFEATED mark (6-0) with Best Bets
NBA PLAYOFFS CONCLUDE 13-4 Including a rare "5 UNIT" Best Bet event in game-seven of the Finals (83-79 final score) TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” NBA FINALS REDZONE BEST BET (Celtics +7 at Lakers in a 9:05 eastern tipoff on ABC): The bottom line is that tonight we have a very rare handicapping situation as the NBA Finals have gone the distance just 3 times in the past 25 years. Normally the NBA champion is preordained but this year is different since both the Celtics (2008) and Lakers (2009) are meeting in the Finals after winning the league trophy each of the prior two seasons. In the past 25 years only TWICE have we seen a squad seeded lower that #3 go all the way and win the championship trophy. To make a long story short Boston is in position to defy the odds tonight because they are a VETERAN squad that has already won a championship and are used to high profile setups such as this. I have mentioned several times during the Finals that the Celtics actually won more games on the ROAD than at home during the regular season which is something this successful franchise has seen only twice dating back to 1955. Normally teams that suffer a 22-point blowout loss would have a hard time recovering, but we have already seen the Celtics bounce back after dropping a 29-point decision against Cleveland. Of course the Celtics made the Finals after knocking off two teams (Magic, Cavaliers) who had the two-best NBA regular season records so this team is used to defying the odds. It certainly makes sense to “take” the generous points tonight considering that we have two franchises that have won a grand total of 32 different NBA championship titles and have met 11 different times in the Finals. When handicapping this particular series I have seen a constant pattern of Los Angeles always responding in a “revenge” situation. After losing by a whopping 39-points in the 2008 Championship finale at Boston where local fans ended up throwing rocks at the team bus, it came as no personal shock that the Lakers won the 2010 Finals opener by a wide margin. In addition Los Angeles in their first Finals visit to Boston since that 39-point debacle also responded in game-three by pulling off an underdog outright upset. In a do-or-die situation back on Tuesday, the Lakers once again responded to adversity by literally outhustling their opponent. But the fact of the matter is that the Lakers are NOT in a pure “revenge” setup this evening even though Phil Jackson and Kobe Bryant still have not defeated Boston in a championship series. Lakers coach Jackson has 10 different NBA title rings but he has NEVER coached a game-seven situation like this in the Finals which means it is no given he will be successful. Following the 2008 Championship series there were rumors that Jackson was actually outcoached by his counterpart Doc Rivers who just like the “zen master” has shown the ability to make ADJUSTMENTS on the fly which is critical to postseason success. Certainly Boston will have plenty of MOTIVATION after hearing for the better part of two days that they have no chance a winning the title on the highway now that big man Kendrick Perkins is injured and will not play in game-seven. I found a postgame comment by Boston veteran Paul Pierce very telling as he said quote “we know how to win when guys go down”. Boston essentially used most of their collective energy in game-five in what they felt was a must-win situation in their home finale. On Tuesday evening it was the Lakers who wanted the game more and played with much more energy so I for one refuse to overreact to the 22-point blowout. One may want to call this a “law of averages” pick as the entire 2010 NBA playoffs have essentially been blowouts including a handful of 4-0 sweeps. We have had one “game seven” situation in this year’s playoffs which turned into an Atlanta blowout of a Milwaukee contingent that was playing without their best 2 performers. So far in the 2010 Finals we have NOT seen one single contest go down to the final minutes when both coaches are put under the gun, but I am expecting that to chance this evening. One of the more amazing statistics in this postseason is that the straight-up winner of Boston games have gone UNDEFEATED where it counts (23-0 ATS). Even though it has been 32 years since a road team won an NBA Finals “game seven”, the Celtics to a man are confident they can pull it off especially since the starters took it upon themselves to handle the responsibility of Tuesday’s debacle, instead of merely pointing fingers. Essentially this championship series has featured two teams that are even as both benches have responded while every start player has had at least one solid performance. While there is no doubt that the Lakers have the best player on the floor in Kobe Bryant, tonight’s underdog plays better as a “team”. We have dueling setups as Phil Jackson coached teams have never lost (47-0) when winning game-one of a playoff series, but Boston has won the title all 11 times they have grabbed a 3-2 edge in the Finals. My research indicates that the Lakers are a horrible 1-6 all-time in the Finals when down “2-3” in the best-of-seven game set. There are rumors that this may be the final game ever coached by the legendary Phil Jackson, but there also is a possibility that his is the swansong for Doc Rivers in Boston. After tonight Rivers is losing his defensive architect as a prized assistant will move on to be head coach in Chicago. One could make a strong argument that tonight is the final chance for Boston’s corp group of veterans (Garnett, Allen, Pierce, Wallace) who are getting too old to both stay healthy and perform at this high level. I can tell you that the Boston “big three” are UNDEFEATED in playoff series when all are healthy. Turning to the database here is a 72-PERCENT SYSTEM (25-10 past five years) which plays ON teams like Boston after trailing the previous game by 15+ points at halftime, off a contest where less than 161 combined points were put on the scoreboard. In the past two years Boston is UNDEFEATED where it counts (8-0 ATS) when revenging a road loss against an opponent. Tonight marks the 5th time that the Celtics and Lakers have met in a championship “game seven” situation which sets us up for an absolute classic NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP BEST BET WIN Decided by TWO point margin TONIGHT'S "4 UNIT" REDZONE COLLEGE BEST BET (
