Late breaking Thursday information 5:00 eastern----"11-3" NFL premium tear----"5-1" NFL Best Bets since 8/20----Tuesday BEST BET Mariners (+170) UNDERDOG WIN at Athletics----Opening College "5 UNIT" Best Bet event Fresno State (-2) COVERS with ease last Saturday in 28-14 National-TV home triumph versus Cincinnati----"15-10" Premium FOOTBALL since 8/20----Premium service TOTALS "9-4" last thirteen releases----"6-5" Football BEST BETS since 8/20----All PREMIUM releases "14-12" in September (including baseball)----Outstanding "11-3" NFL premium service tear (including "5-1" with BEST BETS since 8/20)----Opening football "5 UNIT" event Rams (+8) OUTRIGHT upset at Patriots----Opening College "5 UNIT" event Fresno State (-2) opening week COVER in 28-14 home romp of Cincinnati----"9-4" MLB in month of September----"6-3" all NFL Preseason Best Bets----"31-32" premium MLB past thirty-six days----"5-1" all rare 5-UNIT Best Bet bombshells since 5/27----"3-1" all MARQUEE Best Bets (4 Units or higher) in July----"61-63" PREMIUM service since All-Star break----"11-9" all BEST BETS in month of July----Opening baseball "5 UNIT" baseball Best Bet bombshell WINS (National League) in the ALL-STAR GAME----MARQUEE Best Bets (4-Units or higher) "3-1" in July----NBA PLAYOFFS WRAP UP "13-4" FINAL THREE WEEKS OF COVERAGE----Rare "5 UNIT" Best Bet Celtics (+7) COVER WIRE TO WIRE 83-79 in NBA Finals epic game-seven----NBA PLAYOFFS WRAP UP "13-4" (including rare "5 Unit" Best Bet WINNER in game-seven of Finals----NBA Best Bets final three weeks of coverage UNDEFEATED (3-0)----Thursday 5/27 rare "5 UNIT" NBA Best Bet event Suns/Lakers UNDER (217') WINS with ease in 103-101 playoff tilt----"119-108" PREMIUM SERVICE PAST 102 DAYS----"22-9" NBA sides+totals since 5/5----"47-52" Baseball BEST BETS past 117 days----NBA PARLAYS (2-1)in playoffs----"91-89-6" premium BASEBALL past 112 days (small favorites, underdogs, totals)----MARQUEE Basketball Best Bets (4 Units or higher) finish "4-1" in month of April----MARQUEE Basketball Best Bets outstanding "4-1" in month of April (including "5 UNIT" NBA Playoff WIN to close month of April)----"48-34" all NBA premium final 80 days of coverage----"12-7" Basketball Best Bets in April (including "5 UNIT" NBA Playoff WIN on 4/30)----MARQUEE College Best Bets finish "15-5" since March (including NCAA Championship COVER with Butler)----NCAA POSTSEASON GAME OF THE YEAR (Butler) COVERS with ease in NCAA Championship----College Best Bets finish blistering "8-1" in March Madness----NCAA FINAL FOUR BEST BET PARLAY SWEEP (Duke and Butler)----NIT TOTAL OF THE YEAR North Carolina/Dayton OVER (139) WINS in 79-68 shootout----MARQUEE College Best Bet monsters (4-Units or higher) outstanding "14-5" since March----"14-5" all PREMIUM college final nine days of coverage----Postseason BEST BET Missouri State (-5') COVERS in a 78-65 home win in the College Insider Championship----Special "5 UNIT" College Best Bet bombshell Virginia Commonwealth (-9') COVERS in a 68-56 home triumph in opening CBI Tournament Championship tilt----MARQUEE College Best Bets (4 Units or higher) excellent "13-5" for month of March----All MARQUEE College Best Bets (4 Units or higher) excellent "13-5" in month of March----All college basketball BEST BET wagers in MARCH (27-20)----"206-189" OVERALL PREMIUM WAGERS PAST 152 DAYS----"40-30" ALL Basketball BEST BETS final 74 days of coverage----"53-46" all college POSTSEASON TOURNAMENT premium releases----All PREMIUM sides+totals for February (59-55) above .500 mark----MARQUEE Best Bet sides+totals of at least 4-Units (27-25) since Super Bowl "5 UNIT" triumph----"115-100" TOTALS premium service run----Special "5 UNIT" Super Bowl Best Bet event (Under) WINS by near double-digit margin----SUPER BOWL SIDE+TOTAL SWEEP (Saints-and-Under)----"59-55" all PREMIUM sides-and-totals in month of February----"295-275" PREMIUM sides+totals past 193 days----NFL All-Star Best Bet OVER (57') WINS with ease in 41-34 thriller on 1/31----"13-6" all college basketball BEST BETS in January----Opening college basketball "5 UNIT" bombshell Texas-El Paso (+8') OUTRIGHT as they snap Memphis' record 64-game conference win streak on 1/20----Basketball BEST BETS "76-69" final 145 releases----Spectacular "5-1" NFL Divisional Playoff sides-and-totals (plus "5 UNIT" triumph and 3-3 overall football since Championship Sunday)----Saturday "5 UNIT" NFL bombshell Colts (-3') first half COVERS on 1/16----"130-125" college premium basketball final 83 days----"198-173-5" all PREMIUM BASKETBALL past 118 days----WILDCARD SYSTEM GAME OF THE YEAR (underdog Cardinals OUTRIGHT over Packers)----"23-12" Sunday Best Bets past sixteen weeks (including Super Bowl "5 Unit" UNDER total)----""29-19" all Sunday PREMIUM FOOTBALL past nine weeks (60%)----All Sunday NFL regular season Best Bets "23-13"----"5 UNIT" BCS Championship bombshell WINS Thursday (3-1 overall BCS Championship wagers including ALABAMA)----3-1 with postseason Bowl "5 UNIT" Best Bet bombshells (including BCS Championship OVER total in opening half)----"12-5" all college PREMIUM service football since New Years Day----Monday FOOTBALL releases finish "27-14" for entire season dating to August (including 1/4 Fiesa Bowl UNDER total by 27 point margin)----"23-14" all FOOTBALL BEST BETS final eight weeks----Saturday Bowl Best Bet East Carolina (+7') COVERS in 20-17 OT thriller----HAPPY NEW YEAR----Special "5 UNIT" Friday bombshell Northwestern/Auburn OVER (55) WINS in a 38-35 Outback Bowl shootout----HAPPY NEW YEAR----FRIDAY SWEEP included Rose Bowl Best Bet Ohio State (+4) OUTIRGHT upset of Oregon----All Football BEST BETS "23-14" final thirty-three days----"42-20" College FOOTBALL tear to close season----"30-19" NFL Premium wagers final forty-eight releases (60%)----Opening Bowl "5 UNIT" bombshell WINS Christmas eve (SMU/Nevada Under total by 17 point margin)----New Years Day "5 UNIT" college football Northwestern/Auburn OVER (55) WINS in wild 38-35 shootout----"42-20" College FOOTBALL tear to close season (near 70% final sixty-two premium releases)----"30-19" NFL Premium wagers since 12/14----"23-14" FOOTBALL BEST BETS past thirty-five days (including 10 different NFL "double digit" spread triumphs)----Opening "5 UNIT" Monday Football event 49ers (+4) OUTRIGHT 24-9 upset of Cardinals on 12/14----5-3 with "5 UNIT" NFL bombshells since Thanksgiving----"53-33" all PREMIUM FOOTBALL past thirty-three days of coverage----"20-9" SATURDAY Premium FOOTBALL past eight weeks----"23-10" NFL PRIMETIME TV premium sides+totals final twelve weeks----"9-3" Monday Football past final five weeks (5-0 sides)----"71-45" ALL PREMIUM FOOTBALL PAST TWELVE WEEKS (60%)----Saturday BEST BET TOTAL Texas/Nebraska UNDER (46') WINS with ease in 13-12 very low scoring Big 12 Championship on 12/5----Friday MARQUEE BEST BET Ohio/Central Michigan UNDER (54') WINS with ease in 20-10 very low scoring Mid-American Championship on 12/4----"9-3" Monday Football final five weeks----"86-51" premium FOOTBALL final 47 days of coverage----"20-9" PREMIUM FOOTBALL LAST SIX SATURDAY CARDS----HAPPY THANKSGIVING----Special "5 UNIT" NFL event (Packers/Lions Under total) WINS on Turkey Day----First NFL "5 Unit" Best Bet monster in 32 days WINS ("2-1" overall premium FOOTBALL Thanksgiving Thursday)----"23-10" tear NFL Primetime sides-and-totals----ALL NFL PRIMETIME TV RELEASES "51-30" FOR SEASON----5-3 for season with RARE "5 Unit" College Football Best Bet bombshells (incredible 16-7 last two-plus seasons)----College Football "5 UNIT" Best Bet event Maryland/Florida State UNDER (58') WINS in 29-26 contest where Florida State 26-YEAR defensive coordinator says goodbye to home fans on 11/21---- "26-16" Premium NFL November----"17-7" all college football 5 UNIT Best Bets past two-plus years (including BCS Championship OVER total in opening half)----All Sunday NFL regular season Best Bets "23-13" for season-----ESPN NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Virginia Tech/East Carolina Under total) COVERS BY 32' POINTS Thursday 11/5----World Series baseball Best Bets finish "2-1" on diamond----Saturday 10/31 rare college "5 UNIT" Best Bet Temple (+7) OUTRIGHT road upset securing first Bowl eligibility in THIRTY YEARS----Solid "57-42" FOOTBALL BEST BETS final seventy-seven days----College PREMIUM Football "74-62" overall run to close season (including ALABAMA in National Championship)----"57-42" FOOTBALL BEST BETS since 10/12----All Football Best Bets covering at approaching 62-PERCENT final ninety-five days (70-48)----All premium FOOTBALL final ninety-three days (157-114) covering spread at 60% clip----"33-25" all COLLEGE BEST BETS for season----"68-47" all FOOTBALL BEST BETS final ninety days-----All Monday PREMIUM Football "27-14" since August----SATURDAY PREMIUM FOOTBALL "39-24-2" PAST THIRTEEN WEEKS----"91-64" all NATIONAL-TV PRIMETIME football since August----All NFL regular season BEST BETS "33-22"----Opening 2009 Football "5 UNIT" Best Bet Tennessee/Florida UNDER (53) WINS BY 17-POINT MARGIN in 23-13 low scoring CBS-TV tussle Saturday 9/19----College "5 UNIT" College event #2 WINS on 10/31 with Temple (+7) OUTRIGHT and securing Bowl eligbility for first time in THIRTY YEARS----College Football "5 UNIT" event #4 of season Maryland/Florida State UNDER (58') WINS in final home appearance for Seminoles 26-YEAR defensive coordinator----College Football "5 UNIT" events 17-7 past two-plus years----All College Football BEST BETS cover at "33-25" clip----Positive "90-62" all National-TV Football since August----2009 Premium NFL "79-57" entire regular season----All NFL "National-TV" wagers excellent "49-29-1" since August----"79-57" all NFL regular season premium wagers----PREMIUM FOOTBALL "182-140" final 115 days of coverage----Opening NFL regular season Best Bet "Titans/Steelers" UNDER (35') WINS with ease in very low scoring 13-10 overtime tussle Thursday 9/10----NFL National-TV premium wagers excellent "46-27-1" since August----Premium Football "181-139" since Labor Day Holiday Weekend----ALL INCLUSIVE "5-sport "package through Super Bowl----2009 College Premium Football "89-71" for entire season----ALL 2009 PREMIUM COLLEGE FOOTBALL "90-73" FOR THE SEASON----College Football last September (25-12) successfully covered spread at 66-PERCENT clip----NFL Preseason Best Bets finish "3-3" (opening REGULAR SEASON NFL Best Bet WINS on 9/10)----NFL National TV premium wagers sizzling "7-1-1" preseason (including UNDEFEATED Monday mark)----NFL PRESEASON TOTAL OF THE YEAR Patriots/Redskins OVER (37') WINS with ease 8/28 in 27-24 CBS-TV shootout----Preseason premium NFL (14-14-1) finishes .500 mark----4 consecutive WINNING FOOTBALL campaigns----2008 COLLEGE FOOTBALL (covered at 66-PERCENT last September at 23-12 overall)----"492-487-18" overall past 241 days----"112-125" PREMIUM baseball (small favorites, underdogs, totals) final 165 days of coverage----"179-167" BEST BET releases since 6/19----"448-417" PREMIUM wagers past 267 days of coverage----"555-544" Premium/Free action past 266 days of coverage----565-551-18 overall Premium/Free wagers last 260 days of coverage----"514-504" PREMIUM wagers past 325 days of coverage----"47-43" all postseason college tournament PREMIUM wagers----All premium college basketball since last January (190-154) covering at approaching 60-PERCENT----"43-44" all rare 5-UNIT Best Bet bombshells since last September----"757-748" OVERALL PAST 366 DAYS OF COVERAGE----All premium basketball "195-186" since New Years Day (64-67 in NBA)----"146-129" all premium college basketball in 2008/2009

OCD Picks - Home of The 2009 Football Handicapping Champion

 

Up against the nation's elite handicappers as professionally monitored by Sports-Watch and the National Handicappers Bowl. Check out his NFL Football record, his College Football record, and his College Bowl record on SPORTSWATCH!

OC Dooley was also the NFL Over/Under totals champion as reported by The National Handicappers Bowl!

Buy the All Inclusive Football Seasonal Package now


*****Ranked NUMBER-ONE again for the 2010 NFL preseason as professionally monitored at (www.sports-watch.com)*****

Sizzling 11-3 NFL past nineteen days

5-1 NFL Best Bets since 8/20 (lone setback by HALF point)

NFL regular season Thursday opener one year ago (Titans-and-Under) SWEEPS

8-3 past eleven National-TV Football premium releases

 

Click on 4 Day package for all weekend releases (late breaking Thursday premium information 5:00 eastern)

 

 

OPENING COLLEGE 5-UNIT EVENT

WINS ON NATIONAL-TV LAST SATURDAY NIGHT

Fresno State 28-14 home triumph

 

TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET (Fresno State -2 at home versus Cincinnati in a 10:05 eastern kickoff broadcast nationally on ESPN2):  Last year Fresno was extremely competitive in what resulted in a 28-20 loss on the scoreboard at Cincinnati.  What caught my attention in that particular contest is that Fresno State actually CONTROLLED THE CLOCK and deserved to pull off the upset and late tonight they get a shot at revenge.  There is some danger in this selection as Fresno has actually “failed” to cover the spread 8 of the past 9 games in front of their own home fans, but in almost all of those instances have been a victim of “overpricing” by the oddsmakers as they face mainly weaklings from the Western Athletic Conference.  Since visiting Cincinnati was almost unbeatable a year ago (12-1) and has now won consecutive Big East Conference titles, overpricing is certainly not an issue this evening with Fresno who actually opened as a home underdog in this high profile ESPN2 televised contest.  Following this game Fresno State will not be back in front of their home fans (10/2) for an ENTIRE MONTH which adds even more urgency to this particular game.  One of the keys to winning a near “pick em” affair on the gridiron is to figure out which side has a better chance to dominate in the “trenches” where games are ultimately won or lost.  One of the things that excites me about Fresno State is that they return ALL 5 of their offensive line starters from a year ago.  I am aware that Fresno no longer has Ryan Mathews who led the nation in 2009 rushing, the veteran offensive line that has FOUR SENIORS lining up across the front will take some of the sting of his absence away.  Fresno does have a pair of running backs who back in the 2008 campaign reached the “800 yard” plateau so that backfield is not exactly barren.  Another critical factor when handicapping near “pick em” football affairs is SPECIAL TEAMS where the home team has a definitive edge.  Keep an eye on Fresno’s Kevin Goessling who just happens to be one of the top kickers in the entire country.  Not only did Goessling nail 15-of-16 field goal attempts last campaign, he nailed LONG kicks of 50-and-52 yards in length.  Ever since Pat Hill has been head coach Fresno State has built a reputation as being one of the nation’s most “fearless” teams who will play any opponent in any location.   Since 1997 when Hill took control, Fresno State has faced at least 2 different “big six conference” opponents on the road each season logging a 7-21 overall record.  Aggressive scheduling creates opportunities for interesting matchups and “statement” games, but it also leaves Bulldog Stadium empty for an extra weekend or two.  In 2010 the Fresno faithful will have more opportunities to root for the home team as the Bulldogs have 78 different HOME games for the first time since way back in 1994.  It is almost unheard of for Fresno to lure a “big six conference” opponent out west to their own Stadium which makes this evening a rare and unique event.  Cincinnati with Brian Kelly as their head coach won a grand total of 33 games and a pair of Big East championship crowns, but now Kelly is the headman at Notre Dame.  Not only have the Bearcats lost their leader, they also have graduated star wide receiver Mardy Gilyard who also excelled in SPECIAL TEAMS as a lethal return man.  The last time we saw Cincinnati on the field was an ugly 51-24 loss in the Sugar Bowl as the team that ranked “dead last” in Big East total defense was burned once again.  Once again it is almost unheard of for a “big six conference” team to travel out west to Fresno and tonight will be the only HOME affair for the Bulldogs (10/2) for almost a solid month 

 

 

2010 PREMIUM FOOTBALL PROSPERITY

 

--16-10 ALL FOOTBALL SINCE 8/20

--NFL Preseason concludes 11-3 including "5-1" mark with BEST BETS

--All rare "5 Unit" Best Bet bombshells 5-1 since late May (including baseball)

--Opening football "5 Unit" event Rams (+8) OUTRIGHT at Patriots on 8/26

--Opening college "5 Unit" event Fresno State (-2) COVERS in 28-14 home triumph 9/4

--All nationally televised football (NBC, CBS, Fox, ESPN, ABC) sensational 8-3 since 8/20 including college

---6-5 all Best Bets since 8/20

--All premium releases 14-12 in September (including baseball which is "9-4" so far)

--All premium TOTALS  9-2 tear

--All NFL Preseason BEST BETS finish 6-3

--"4-7" college out of the gate (courtesy of a sluggish 1-4 Saturday and 0-2 Monday)

 

 

11-3 NFL PREMIUM SINCE 8/20

Including 5-1 with "Best Bets"

 

--8/20 BEST BET Eagles/Bengals UNDER (38) WINS in 22-9 contest on Fox-TV

--8/21 BEST BET Lions (+3) OUTRIGHT 25-20 road upset at Broncos

--8/21 Raiders (+2) OUTRIGHT 32-17 upset at Bears

--8/21 Steelers/Giants UNDER (33') fails in a 24-17 NFL Network telecast

--8/22 the 49ers (-2') COVER in a 15-10 NBC primetime triumph versus Vikings

--8/23 Cardinals/Titans UNDER (37') WINS in a 24-10 ESPN final verdict

--8/26 opening football "5 UNIT" Best Bet bombshell Rams (+8) OUTRIGHT road upset at Patriots

--8/27 Chiefs (+2) fail to cover by ONE point in 20-17 home setback versus Eagles

--8/27 Eagles/Chiefs UNDER (39') WINS in a contest with 37 combined points scored

--8/28 BEST BET Panthers (-3) COVER in 15-7 home triumph versus Titans

--8/28 Seahawks/Vikings UNDER (39) WINS in 24-13 final verdict

--8/29 BEST BET Broncos (+2') OUTRIGHT WIN in 34-17 romp of Steelers

--9/2  BEST BET Chiefs (-4') fail by a HOOK in what was a 17-13 straight-up triumph at home

--9/2 Patriots/Giants UNDER (37') WINS in a 20-17 NFL Network telecast

  

 

*****Going for winning football season #6 in a row*****

 

ALL INCLUSIVE 2010/2011 FOOTBALL SEASON PACKAGE IS NOW AVAILABLE (check out the right hand portion of this web page) 

 

 

OPENING NFL "5 UNIT" EVENT (underdog Rams OUTRIGHT on 8/26)

 

TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” FOOTBALL REDZONE BEST BET (Rams +8 at Patriots in a 7:35 eastern kickoff):  Due to injury this evening marks the first start for quarterback Sam Bradford since last October when as a member of Oklahoma he was hurt in the traditional “red river rivalry” against Texas.  Despite being sidelined for a substantial amount of time, Bradford will be receiving $50-million dollars of guaranteed money from the Rams who just officially got a new owner.  During the preseason most quality teams with a track record of success expose “front line veterans” to just enough action where the various personnel can get their timing down.  But for the “1-15” Rams these seemingly meaningless exhibition contests are vitally important not only to gain confidence, but also to energize the fan base.  Poor teams like St. Louis tend to thrive in preseason ROAD affairs knowing that local fans can watch the game live and not be subject to a possible league “black out” when the stands are not completely full.  After getting pounded in week-one in front of their own fan base, St. Louis went on the ROAD last week and pulled off an OUTRIGHT 19-17 triumph even though a host of defenders (CB’s Kevin Dickey, Justin King and Jerome Murphy along with Safeties James Butler and Kevin Payne) did not take the field due to injury.  One week ago St. Louis played in a driving RAIN storm which affected the reserves including Bradford, but the weather conditions this evening in New England just happen to be EXCELLENT.  There has been plenty of offshore wagering activity on the Patriots who not only have won-and-covered both exhibition contests, but also appeared in a FOX-TV national telecast in Atlanta last week where fans across the country got to see the return of receiver Wes Welker from major knee surgery.  The wagering public also has to be excited about superstar quarterback Tom Brady who so far has completed 15-of-20 pass attempts and already appears to be in midseason form.  But the fact of the matter is that New England is suffering from serious ATTRITION and INJURY and that includes Brady who is in contract negotiations as we speak.  Speaking of contract negotiations the Patriots starting offensive line is currently in shambles as Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins is threatening to sit out the season if not getting a preferred long term deal that the organization has always seem reluctant to do with their veterans.  In five years Mankins has NEVER missed a start and is one of the reasons why Tom Brady is a superstar quarterback.  Last year Brady was sacked only “once” in every 36.3 drop backs which was “second fewest” in all of football right behind a guy named Peyton Manning.  While tonight’s home team is having issues across the front line, it has been woeful offensive line play that basically took the life and drive out of now former St. Louis starting quarterback Marc Bulger who has been reduced to reserve status currently in a Ravens uniform.  Bulger has taken such a severe beating that he was actually considering an early retirement.  Of course the Rams are now staking their future on Sam Bradford who tonight gets his first shot to IMPRESS the “first string” offense.  What excites me is that tonight marks the first time that Bradford has had an opportunity to take the field at the same time that superstar running back Stephen Jackson (2009 NFC rushing champion) is also in the fold.  To give you an idea just how important Jackson’s presence on the field is, the Rams a week ago gained 65 of their 172 total yards with their #1 player in the huddle.  Even though St. Louis came away with a victory one week ago, Sam Bradford had 8 consecutive possessions where the team “did not” register a single first down.  I just have a feeling that Bradford who is now playing with the “first string” will generate much more than the 30 total yards on 24 plays a week ago.  According to the Rams head coach, football’s #1 overall draft pick will be a lot more comfortable now that Jackson will be on the field with him.  Taking a look at this “St. Louis/New England series” they are dead EVEN (4-4) when meeting in the preseason.  The last time these two teams squared off in a regular season clash was in 2008 AT New England where the Rams (23-16 final score) were competitive.  It is worth noting that the 2010 preseason schedule sees New England facing 3 different quality opponents (Saints, Falcons, Giants).  Tonight marks the ONLY preseason game where the Patriots are up against a losing organization which has led to an “over pricing” issue.  Turning to the database here is a 70-PERCENT PRESEASON SYSTEM (47-20 past decade) which plays ON road underdogs like St. Louis (+3/+10) off a contest where the defense allowed “5’ or less” passing yards per attempt by the opposition.  My research also indicates that preseason favorites like New England laying 3’-to-10 points who are coming off a spread triumph have actually FAILED to cover the spread the past decade (50-24) a whopping 68-PERCENT of the time.  The bottom line is that tonight’s preseason contest is vitally important to the collective psyche of the Rams now that Sam Bradford will get a long look with the “first stringers” 

 

 

97-97-7 ALL PREMIUM BASEBALL PAST 121 DAYS OF COVERAGE (small favorites, underdogs, totals)

 

 

120-109 PAST 102 DAYS OF COVERAGE OVERALL

 

 

ALL STAR BEST BET EVENT WINS

The first "5 UNIT" Best Bet of the baseball season WINS as the National League takes the mid-summer classic for the first time since 1996

 

TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” REDZONE ALL-STAR GAME BEST BET (National League +110 versus American League in a 8:20 eastern start on FOX-TV):  Of course the big sports story is the sudden passing of former Yankees owner George Steinbrenner who built a legendary franchise into a recent success.  Despite the Yankees long run of postseason berths it is almost unheard of in this day in age for a manager to make CONSECUTIVE appearances in the All-Star game which annually rewards the skippers of the prior World Series.  This is a critical area where the National League has an advantage as Charlie Manuel is directing the senior circuit after gaining invaluable experience of juggling an All-Star roster in 2009.  From his first press conference in Anaheim Manuel has repeatedly mentioned how important WINNING what is essentially is an exhibition game really is.  In what is an ironic twist WINNING at all costs was the only thing that mattered to the now late George Steinbrenner  The mid-summer classic has changed dramatically since 2004 as the triumphant league gets home field advantage in the World Series and we can see by the shaping of the respective rosters that the National League and Manuel in particular are setting themselves up to win in the LATE innings as the senior circuit has a large collection of speed, defense and position flexibility off the bench.  One of the most controversial picks was the selection of Atlanta RESERVE Omar Infante who can literally play any position in the field and is a “contact” hitter who can handle the bat and pick up the clutch hit (.367 average with runners in scoring position).  Other National League reserves who can play “small ball” off the bench with both speed and bunting ability are Michael Bourne and Chris Young while veteran Scott Rolen provides defensive prowess at the hot corner.  Admittedly the American League starting lineup has an edge in the power department, but the National League has plenty of homerun capability (Ryan Howard, Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez) coming off the bench.  Another area where the National League has an advantage in the latter innings tonight is in the bullpen where 3 different SETUP men can be called on.  Even though the Pittsburgh Pirates continue to be the laughingstock of baseball their representative Evan Meek just happens to have a SUB-ONE ERA.  One of the most prized pitching possessions that every team seeks annually is effective LEFTHANDERS and Cincinnati set-up man Arthur Rhodes (33 consecutive SCORELESS appearances) just happens to dominate opposing southpaw batters.  The next area where the senior circuit has an advantage is at CLOSER simply because Yankees star Mariano Rivera is NOT participating due to injury.  Not only has Rivera allowed ZERO earned runs in 8 different All-Star appearances, he has successfully saved American League victories 3 of the past 5 years.  Considering how close recent All-Star games have been, there is no question that the American League roster is going to miss his positive “aura” from the bullpen in the late innings.  The next area where the underdog side has an advantage this evening is last minute ROSTER REPLACEMENTS as the National League (3) has had to make much fewer moves as opposed to the American League (7).  The newest rule change for the mid-summer classic is that pitchers who start on Sunday cannot participate and the American League has 3 of them (C.C. Sabathia, Trevor Cahill, Jered Weaver) who worked on the final day of the first-half.  One can argue that the handful of replacements made by the National League actually works in their favor as league saves leader Heath Bell now gets to participate.  Mets speedster Jose Reyes has battled injuries for consecutive campaigns and his replacement (Rafael Furcal) at least statistically is a more “complete” player.  In another unusual move to give the National League a “matchup” edge, outfielder Jason Heyward was actually replaced by reliever Hong-Chih Kuo who is a complete unknown except to fans of the Dodgers.  Kuo (1.03 ERA, 12 holds) is a great story in that he has fought back from 4 different arm surgeries to register 36 STRIKEOUT victims in 28 innings of work.  O course the American League has won 13 consecutive All-Star games and also has the statistical edge in this year’s round of Interleague contests.  While the overall balance of power has not shifted, the “cream of the crop” with National League STARTING PITCHERS has.  To give you an idea of the amazing depth there are actually 4 different hurlers with better ERA’s (Johnson, Wainwright, Halladay, Garcia) than tonight’s starter Ubaldo Jiminez who has gotten the nod courtesy of a phenomenal 15-1 record and a no-hitter.  What is so scary is that the National League pitching roster does not include phenom Stephen Strasburg (2.32 ERA, 61 strikeouts) and Johan Santana who not all that long ago was the most dominant hurler in the game.  Two-time Cy Young award winner Tim Lincecum has been reduced to a mere afterthought even though he leads the senior circuit in strikeouts.  San Diego’s Mat Latos who since May has put up serious numbers for the surprising Padres (9-2, 1.56 ERA) was not good enough to make what is an imposing National League pitching roster.  This particular All-Star Game is being played in Anaheim where way back in 1967 the National League pulled off a 2-1 victory in 15 innings of a game where the pitchers dominated, so we have some history on our side.  The National League has not won this event since way back in 1996 when the team was managed by Bobby Cox.  In another ironic twist this is Cox’s last year after leading the Braves to 14 different divisional titles.  Other than Cox and Joe Torre in his early Yankee days, managers getting to lead the All-Star game in consecutive campaigns are unheard of so I for one will be keeping a close eye on Charlie Manuel in his second consecutive tour of duty.  There is no question that 2010 has been the year of the pitcher and the National League at least statistically has an enormous edge in that department along with a very diverse roster that includes 3 middle relievers and a late inning defensive replacement (Omar Infante) who is not an everyday starter for his team. The American League’s string of victories (13) is the longest unbeaten streak in All-Star history, so this is also a law of averages special

 

NBA PLAYOFFS WRAP UP A SIZZLING 13-4 IN THE FINAL THREE WEEKS OF COVERAGE (including a "5 UNIT" Best Bet triumph in an epic Finals game-seven)

 

College basketball premium coverage concludes 14-5 including an UNDEFEATED mark (6-0) with Best Bets

 

 

NBA PLAYOFFS CONCLUDE 13-4

Including a rare "5 UNIT" Best Bet event in game-seven of the Finals (83-79 final score)

 

TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” NBA FINALS REDZONE BEST BET (Celtics +7 at Lakers in a 9:05 eastern tipoff on ABC):  The bottom line is that tonight we have a very rare handicapping situation as the NBA Finals have gone the distance just 3 times in the past 25 years.  Normally the NBA champion is preordained but this year is different since both the Celtics (2008) and Lakers (2009) are meeting in the Finals after winning the league trophy each of the prior two seasons.  In the past 25 years only TWICE have we seen a squad seeded lower that #3 go all the way and win the championship trophy.  To make a long story short Boston is in position to defy the odds tonight because they are a VETERAN squad that has already won a championship and are used to high profile setups such as this.  I have mentioned several times during the Finals that the Celtics actually won more games on the ROAD than at home during the regular season which is something this successful franchise has seen only twice dating back to 1955.  Normally teams that suffer a 22-point blowout loss would have a hard time recovering, but we have already seen the Celtics bounce back after dropping a 29-point decision against Cleveland.  Of course the Celtics made the Finals after knocking off two teams (Magic, Cavaliers) who had the two-best NBA regular season records so this team is used to defying the odds.  It certainly makes sense to “take” the generous points tonight considering that we have two franchises that have won a grand total of 32 different NBA championship titles and have met 11 different times in the Finals.  When handicapping this particular series I have seen a constant pattern of Los Angeles always responding in a “revenge” situation.  After losing by a whopping 39-points in the 2008 Championship finale at Boston where local fans ended up throwing rocks at the team bus, it came as no personal shock that the Lakers won the 2010 Finals opener by a wide margin.  In addition Los Angeles in their first Finals visit to Boston since that 39-point debacle also responded in game-three by pulling off an underdog outright upset.  In a do-or-die situation back on Tuesday, the Lakers once again responded to adversity by literally outhustling their opponent.  But the fact of the matter is that the Lakers are NOT in a pure “revenge” setup this evening even though Phil Jackson and Kobe Bryant still have not defeated Boston in a championship series.  Lakers coach Jackson has 10 different NBA title rings but he has NEVER coached a game-seven situation like this in the Finals which means it is no given he will be successful.  Following the 2008 Championship series there were rumors that Jackson was actually outcoached by his counterpart Doc Rivers who just like the “zen master” has shown the ability to make ADJUSTMENTS on the fly which is critical to postseason success.  Certainly Boston will have plenty of MOTIVATION after hearing for the better part of two days that they have no chance a winning the title on the highway now that big man Kendrick Perkins is injured and will not play in game-seven.  I found a postgame comment by Boston veteran Paul Pierce very telling as he said quote “we know how to win when guys go down”.  Boston essentially used most of their collective energy in game-five in what they felt was a must-win situation in their home finale.  On Tuesday evening it was the Lakers who wanted the game more and played with much more energy so I for one refuse to overreact to the 22-point blowout.  One may want to call this a “law of averages” pick as the entire 2010 NBA playoffs have essentially been blowouts including a handful of 4-0 sweeps.  We have had one “game seven” situation in this year’s  playoffs which turned into an Atlanta blowout of a Milwaukee contingent that was playing without their best 2 performers.  So far in the 2010 Finals we have NOT seen one single contest go down to the final minutes when both coaches are put under the gun, but I am expecting that to chance this evening.  One of the more amazing statistics in this postseason is that the straight-up winner of Boston games have gone UNDEFEATED where it counts (23-0 ATS).  Even though it has been 32 years since a road team won an NBA Finals “game seven”, the Celtics to a man are confident they can pull it off especially since the starters took it upon themselves to handle the responsibility of Tuesday’s debacle, instead of merely pointing fingers.  Essentially this championship series has featured two teams that are even as both benches have responded while every start player has had at least one solid performance.  While there is no doubt that the Lakers have the best player on the floor in Kobe Bryant, tonight’s underdog plays better as a “team”.  We have dueling setups as Phil Jackson coached teams have never lost (47-0) when winning game-one of a playoff series, but Boston has won the title all 11 times they have grabbed a 3-2 edge in the Finals.  My research indicates that the Lakers are a horrible 1-6 all-time in the Finals when down “2-3” in the best-of-seven game set.  There are rumors that this may be the final game ever coached by the legendary Phil Jackson, but there also is a possibility that his is the swansong for Doc Rivers in Boston.  After tonight Rivers is losing his defensive architect as a prized assistant will move on to be head coach in Chicago.  One could make a strong argument that tonight is the final chance for Boston’s corp group of veterans (Garnett, Allen, Pierce, Wallace) who are getting too old to both stay healthy and perform at this high level.  I can tell you that the Boston “big three” are UNDEFEATED in playoff series when all are healthy.  Turning to the database here is a 72-PERCENT SYSTEM (25-10 past five years) which plays ON teams like Boston after trailing the previous game by 15+ points at halftime, off a contest where less than 161 combined points were put on the scoreboard.  In the past two years Boston is UNDEFEATED where it counts (8-0 ATS) when revenging a road loss against an opponent.  Tonight marks the 5th time that the Celtics and Lakers have met in a championship “game seven” situation which sets us up for an absolute classic

 

 

NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP BEST BET WIN

Decided by TWO point margin

 

TONIGHT'S "4 UNIT" REDZONE COLLEGE BEST BET ( Butler +7' versus Duke in a 9:20 eastern NCAA National Championship tipoff on CBS): One may want to call this the college "intangible lock of the year" because in essence the stars have lined up to give us a very good chance at seeing a memorable upset. It was exactly TWENTY-FIVE YEARS ago when we had the biggest upset in college basketball history as #9 seed Villanova knocked off Patrick Ewing and heavily favored Georgetown in the 1985 Finals. The last time a " non" power conference squad won the national championship just happened to be exactly TWENTY YEARS ago when Nevada-Las Vegas (Mountain West Conference) pulled off the trick. Certainly there has never been a school as small as Butler (4,200 enrollment) that has run the table in the NCAA's but one can make an argument that tonight's game is a reflection on the current state of college basketball. We are currently in an era that is defined by the NBA's minimum-age limit whereby the very best players participate only briefly before leaving BCS-Conference schools. Small conference "mid major" programs now have an edge in chemistry and in the case of the Bulldogs prior EXPERIENCE in postseason pressure situations. Butler has reached the Sweet Sixteen round of the NCAA Tournament 3 times in the past eight years and this particular squad just happened to return all FIVE starters from 2009. Back on Saturday as predicted Duke showed the nation and all the negative media critics that they truly deserved to be a "one seed" instead of West Virginia who ended up in the #2 slot. This evening it is Butler who has special motivation to prove that a "mid major" program can be a viable threat to win the Big Dance. Going back to day-one of this tournament Texas-El Paso was a popular upset pick by prognosticators to immediately knock the Bulldogs out of the Big Dance. Not only did that upset not occur, Butler has now knocked off opposition from 3 of the absolute toughest conferences (Big East, Big 12, Big 10) in the entire country. It is hard to call Butler a true cinderella since they entered this tournament with a high #5 seed. In addition TEN of the 15 players on Butler's roster just happen to reside from the "basketball crazy" state of Indiana where even high school programs are king. Even though he looks like a student Butler's Brad Stevens has the MOST WINS all-time by a head coach in his initial 3 years of service. Despite his very young age (33) Stephens does not panic on the sidelines and that is also reflected in his players who lost leads against both Syracuse and Kansas State but were mentally tough enough to recover in the clutch. It is easy to see why Butler has been cast as a prohibitive underdog even though they are playing just 6 miles from campus which assures enormous fan support. It was exactly one year ago when Michigan State (+8) actually had the advantage of playing in their home state but ended up getting blown out by North Carolina in the NCAA Title tilt. It certainly is not everyday that we have a squad that has won 25 games in a row getting so many points from the oddsmakers but the fact of the matter is that Butler has some injury issues. As predicted injuries played a huge part in Saturday's Final Four as both Michigan State and West Virginia were not completely healthy and ultimately were unable to notch victories even though both head coaches (Tom Izzo, Bob Huggins) had long track records of success. Butler has a pair of starting front-line players Matt Howard (concussion) and Shelvin Mack (thigh) who are officially listed on the injury report but this team has a lot of depth. On offense the Bulldogs seemingly always have 5 players who can both "pass and catch" as they constantly work the shot clock which eventually wears down the opposition. I want all of you to be aware that prior to this tournament both Duke (2-6-1) and Butler (3-7 very end of January through February) struggled "against the spread" but have made investors a fortune in the Big Dance. It is also worth considering that Duke (34) and Butler (33) almost have the same number of overall victories which means TAKING the generous points is the way to go. Turning to the database I see that Duke is actually a poor 10-20 ATS/ROAD long term following a game where they made 50+% from three-point territory. Here is a 65-PERCENT SYSTEM (68-37 since 1997) that goes AGAINST "neutral court" favorites like Duke in a game involving two excellent defenses, after a blowout win of 20+ points in margin. That system indicates that Duke's pounding of West Virginia actually puts them in a "go against" betting situation. Here is a 66-PERCENT SYSTEM (110-58 past five years) which plays ON "veteran" underdogs like Butler of 3'-to-9' points off a very low scoring game where both sides put less than 66 points on the scoreboard, with all FIVE starters returning. It is almost unheard of to have an underdog setup like what we are seeing this evening so I am putting the label of "college postseason game of the year" on this pick


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