Friday afternoon premium report SWEEP as Rhode Island (-3) wins by sixteen points while Virginia/Duke UNDER the total wins by a 24-point margin.  A “five game” game Friday NIGHT card just released including an ESPN/Big East late night special (Notre Dame/West Virginia) which tips off at 9:30 eastern.  But the big news Friday night is a MARQUEE Best Bet monster

 

MARQUEE COLLEGE BEST BETS (4 Units or higher) 5-2-1 IN MONTH OF MARCH

 

FRIDAY MARQUEE BEST BET (6:30 eastern start)

Houston/Southern Mississippi

Conference USA semifinal with COACHING information

 

 

FRIDAY NIGHT PREMIUM “FIVE PACK”

 

--Best Bet Houston/Southern Mississippi (6:30 eastern tipoff)

--Plus ESPN-TV Notre Dame/West Virginia (9:30 eastern start)

--Plus Atlantic 10 Massachussetts/Richmond backed by an UNDEFEATED 8-0 ATS angle  (9:00 eastern tipoff)

--Plus Mid-American Ohio/Miami-Ohio backed by UNDEFEATED 6-0 ATS angle  (9:30 eastern tipoff)

--Plus NBA-TV Nuggets/Hornets involving 8-1 season angle  (8:05 eastern tipoff)

 

DISCOUNTED 3-Day Triple package (all “day/night” postseason reports now through Selection Sunday

 

 

THURSDAY NIGHT MARQUEE BEST BET

Despite a mamouth “26-4” SYSTEM automatic the past five years, last night’s top-rated wager lost by a seven-point margin (86-67 final score)

 

TONIGHT’S “4 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET NATIONAL-TV COLLEGE TOTAL (Texas versus Baylor UNDER 146 in a Big 12 Conference quarterfinal tilt that tips off at 9:30 eastern on ESPN2-TV):  Baylor has always been known as an offensive juggernaut with their current head coach, but this season has been completely different even though the Bears for the season are averaging more than 77 points per contest.  The big news in Waco in a stellar campaign which has seen the team leap into the National Top-25 rankings is the fact that the DEFENSE is permitting opponents a rather small (65) per game allowance.  It is amazing to me that Baylor has played above the total in 12 of 15 league tilts considering that just last month they lead the entire Big 12 Conference in BLOCKED SHOTS and had a #2 ranking in field goal percentage defense.  The key addition to the roster this year has been big man Ekpe Udoh who ranked #3 nationally with an average of more than 4 blocked shots per contest.  Udoh actually transferred from Michigan where he was a part of an "all Big 10 conference" defensive squad.  It will be an interesting battle of big men tonight down low in the paint as Udoh goes up against Texas senior center Dexter Pittman.  While it has been a memorable campaign for Baylor, the exact opposite is true for Texas who ended the regular season with losses in 8 of 13 games which pushed them out of the national rankings.  What is so scary about Texas currently being unranked is the fact that they actually had a national #1 rank back in early January as they cruised through the “non” conference schedule.  One of the main problems for the Longhorns severe drop in the polls has been a LACK of defensive intensity as they permitted on average near 75 points per game in Big 12 league play.  It was just this past Saturday when Texas was swept in the regular season by Baylor who put 92 points on the scoreboard and shot a blistering 54% from the field.  Following that humiliation Texas head coach Rick Barnes made a point to say how disappointed he was in his defense which yesterday permitted 75 points in an opening round triumph where the offense (82) as has been the case so often in league play came to the rescue.  Texas has played above the total in 3 consecutive contests where the posted total has been around the 146-point mark.  I find it rather telling that the oddsmakers did not make a radical adjustment in tonight’s spot especially since Baylor has constantly exceeded the number in Big 12 play.  Not only has Texas had problems winning games outright down the stretch, they have also struggled against the number which opens the door to an interesting TOTALS angle from my database research.  In the Rick Barnes coaching era Texas has played UNDER the total at a 70-PERCENT clip (23-10) when the team actually “failed” to cover the spread 4 times in a 5-game span.  To add some more fuel to the fire here is a massive “26-4” SYSTEM (87% past five years) which plays “neutral court” teams like Texas revenging a road loss versus an opponent UNDER the total when that foe has successfully covered the spread as a favorite in 3 consecutive outings.  That amazing 26-4 system favors UNDER the total

 

THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEST BET WIN (underdog Virginia OUTRIGHT upset)

 

TODAY’S “3 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET (Virginia +5’ versus Boston College in a Atlantic Coast Conference 12 noon eastern tipoff):  I want all of you to be aware that every player on the Boston College roster will be returning next season which gives you an idea just how young and inexperienced they are.  Boston College head coach Al Skinner has claimed that his team is a “work in progress” as he has fiddled with different lineups and motivational methods this campaign which produced a below .500 league record.  This is one of those “quick revenge” situations as Boston College defeated Virginia at home 68-55 a mere eight days ago.  One would think the Eagles who also defeated the Cavaliers in last year’s Atlantic Coast Tournament opening round would have been asked by the oddsmakers to lay many more points than the opening figure of 4’.  After all Virginia checks into this contest having lost 9 consecutive games which is the worst streak of futility this school has seen since way back in the 1961-1962 campaign.  During that 0-9 skid Virginia has also “failed” to cover the spread in each instance.  To make matters even worse Virginia has suspended there best player Sylven Landesberg (academics) for the remainder of the season.  Landesberg led the Cavs in average points (17), assists (3) and total minutes played (32) per contest.  He also averaged 5 rebounds per outing and shot a solid 81% from the free-throw line.  Virginia has also lost senior guard and team captain Calvin Baker who suddenly left the team for personal reasons.  So the question is why I would be personally making a major investment on the woeful Cavs this afternoon and it all has to do with OPPORTUNITY.  Many of you will remember Notre Dame’s solid stretch run when they actually played better without injured star Luke Harangody as the offense became less predictable.  With Landesberg out of the lineup one could make the same argument that Virginia is now going to be tougher to defend as they are forced to use younger players seizing the opportunity to get playing time.  The main reason why I like Virginia this afternoon is because of their head coach Tony Bennett who had much success at Washington State before moving to the eastern time zone.   Bennett is a proponent of solid defense and physical play which automatically makes his team a dangerous underdog.  It seems like an eternity since early February when Virginia and there new head coach got off to a solid 5-2 start in conference play and this squad is way overdue to notch a spread victory.  During their current 9-game skid Virginia was forced at one stage to play 5 games in an 11-day span due to snow postponements.  In that stretch Virginia was struggling both on the court and in practice so those “make up” dates proved to be a big detriment.  This Atlantic Coast Conference tournament is a new beginning so to speak for the Cavaliers who have had a chance to catch their collective breath.  My database research indicates that Boston College has had problems handling prosperity as they are a dreadful 1-9 ATS the past three years after successfully covering the spread 4 times in the prior 6 outings

 

 

COLLEGE POSTSEASON REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR

Wednesday marked the initial MARQUEE college Best Bet setback this month as the Oklahoma Sooners lost by a 14-point margin in the Big 12 Tournament

 

TONIGHT’S “4 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET (Oklahoma +7 versus Oklahoma State in a 7:05 eastern tipoff from the Big 12 Tournament):  It is always dangerous to lay too many points with a YOUNG team like the Oklahoma State Cowboys who have only ONE senior on their entire roster.  Even though this game in an “in state” rivalry clash keep in mind that Oklahoma State with victories against the two highest ranked teams in the Big 12 Conference (Kansas, Kansas State) have already locked up a trip to the NCAA Tournament so I question mentally how fired up they will be for this evening.  The Cowboys have done most of their damage at home (7-1) but tonight of course is a road affair.  From what I have been able to find out there will be plenty of energy in the stands this evening as both teams involved have rabid followings.  In the opening Big 12 Conference tournament tilt early this afternoon a Texas Tech squad reeling from a 7-game losing streak not only covered the spread, but won by a “double digit” margin as they let out much frustration.  We have a similar scenario in the early evening Big 12 contest as the Oklahoma Sooners attempt to shake off a disastrous 0-8 skid against an “in state” rival who knocked them out of last year’s postseason conference draw in what turned out to be a 71-70 thriller.  This pick goes under the label of college postseason “revenge” game of the year because the Sooners have been ousted from the Big 12 Tournament twice by their “in state” rivals.  Oklahoma has faced Oklahoma State twice in this particular postseason tournament (1999, 2009) and lost both by a combined FOUR points as they went right down to the wire.  To make a long story short it has been a disastrous season for Oklahoma as they check in having lost 8 games in a row for the first time in 40 YEARS.  The Sooners (13-17) are about to finish below the .500 mark overall for the first time in 29 YEARS so this slide is unprecedented.  It was not all that long ago when the Sooners were on top of the basketball world anchored by superstar Blake Griffin who of course exited early for NBA riches.  During the current 8-game slide Oklahoma has had to play 7 of those games without their captain and lead point guard Willie Warren who suffered a season-ending ankle injury.  Warren’s early exit robbed the Sooners of one of the Big 12 Conference’s top scoring threats.  Actually the problems for Oklahoma started way back in the month of September on the gridiron when star quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford went down in game #1 with an injury which ruined the entire Sooners campaign.  Getting back to basketball Oklahoma split the regular season series with Oklahoma State and in one of the games Sooners guard Tommy Griffin lit up the scoreboard with an incredible 30-POINT effort.  Griffin ended up scoring more points against Oklahoma State’s defense than any other opposing player and I am looking for him to have another big night.  I am aware that Oklahoma State Cowboys guard James Anderson ( 17 different 25+ point efforts) was recently named the Big 12 “player of the year” but all that has done is inflate tonight’s price tag.  Oklahoma State’s current head coach Travis Ford has traditionally struggled in situations like tonight as his teams dating all the way back to the 1996 season are a dreadful 4-15 ATS/ROAD after successfully covering the spread 4 times in a 6-game span.  What that tells me is that the favored Cowboys are “over valued” tonight against a rival opponent who will be inspired

 

A disastrous Wednesday card (0-5) was followed up by a sluggish Thursday (3-3) collegiate performance lowering all premium college basketball to “89-97” the past two months (plus 22-24 in the month of March)

 

MARQUEE BASKETBALL BEST BETS (4-Units or higher) “5-3-1” for the month of March

 

ALL “BEST BETS” 158-150 SINCE MONTH OF AUGUST

 

 

7-5 COLLEGE BEST BETS PAST SIX DAYS (11-8 FOR ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH)

 

 

TUESDAY COLLEGE BEST BETS WINS

Tuesday’s lone collegiate Best Bet was in the TOTALS category as day one of the Big East Tournament concluded with a high scoring 69-68 affair where Cincinnati hung on to eliminate Rutgers

 

TONIGHT’S “3 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET TOTAL (Rutgers versus Cincinnati OVER 131’ in a 9:35 eastern late night Big East tournament tipoff broadcast on ESPNU):  The odds are strong that we are going to see an OVER late this evening when you consider that both afternoon games in the Big East postseason tournament stayed below the spots.  The early evening game from the Big East may not make it above the number either due to a radically inflated total of 166 points.  The key to this particular total is that both teams have the Big East’s two most exciting freshmen OFFENSIVE stars that can light it up in a hurry from the field.  For those who have access to ESPNU this evening keep an eye on Cincinnati’s Lance Stephenson who was one of the more heavily recruited players in the country.  Tonight’s Madison Square Garden appearance is a “homecoming” for Stephenson who was a high school phenom in New York City and grew up in Brooklyn.  Certainly tonight Stephenson is going to have enormous support in the stands from both family and friends and they are all going to be entertained by a player who led all Big East freshmen in average per game point production.  Stephenson also finished in the Top-5 among Big East freshmen in overall rebounds and assists.  Both Stephenson and Dane Miller of Rutgers were the ONLY pair of unanimous selections to the Big East “all rookie” team and are special talents.  Tonight’s total has actually been kept in check because of Rutgers center Hamady Ndiaye (355 career blocked shots) who ranks 3rd nationally in average blocks per contest.  But Rutgers has a poor overall record (13-59 league play with current head coach) again due to a shaky defense that allowed an average of 79 points per pop in five games down the stretch of the regular campaign.  Getting back to Cincinnati’s attack they just happen to have a pair of EXPERIENCED guards (Deonta Vaughn, Mike Rosario) who help give Stephenson some extra open-looks at the basket.  In the past four games Lance Stephenson is averaging 17 points and 8 rebounds per contest for the Bearcats who are coached by Mick Cronin.  In his entire career Cronin coached teams are 19-8 OVER when off consecutive contests that actually stayed below the posted spot

 

TUESDAY NBA BEST BET

The biggest revenge game of the season which opened the door to an incredible 23-4 System automatic the past five years ended up producing the first MARQUEE Best Bet monster loss this month as Miami failed to cover by a BUCKET in a 83-78 final verdict

 

TONIGHT’S “4 UNIT” REDZONE NBA BEST BET (Heat +3’ at Bobcats in a 7:05 eastern tipoff):  In my mind this is the NBA “revenge game of the year” as Miami’s last visit to Charlotte resulted one of the worst losses (104-65) in franchise history.  Of course in the month of March it is hard to concentrate on NBA playoff scenarios but tonight’s contest is actually pivotal in the Eastern Conference postseason chase.  Miami currently is one game ahead of Charlotte for one of the bottom Eastern Conference playoff seeds.  Since Charlotte has already defeated Miami twice this campaign, another Bobcats victory tonight would essentially clinch a “tie breaker” scenario that may come into play one month from now.  It is interesting to note that Charlotte is coming off consecutive home triumphs over the Lakers and Warriors, but both of those teams are from the Western Conference.  Speaking of out west there have been rumors floated by several NBA sources that current Bobcats head coach Larry Brown has contacted the LA Clippers about a possible future position if things do not work out between him and new Charlotte owner Michael Jordan.  Questions regarding the head coach can be a distraction to a Bobcats team that is dealing with INJURIES to big men Gana Diop (knee) and Nazr Mohammed (back).  Mohammed definitely will not play this evening which gives Miami an edge down low in the post especially since the Heat are slated to get back a pair of big men (Jermaine O’Neal, Dorell Wright) from injury.  With those pair of players returning that is just going to make Miami’s Michael Beasley that much more dangerous and the youngster is already coming off a game where he scored 14 points in the final quarter.  Beasley has been egged on of late by Miami superstar Dwayne Wade who during the team’s 3-game winning streak has averaged a whopping 33 points and 12 assists per contest.  The Heat recently went through a rough stretch with Wade injured, but he has proved in the past week that he is back to full health.  With the help of their best player Miami as a team has scored at least 100 points in THREE consecutive games for the first time since last March!  Another recent major contributor to the Miami offensive attack has been veteran forward Quentin Richardson who has registered consecutive 20+ point efforts.  At the top of this analysis I mentioned that Miami’s last visit to Charlotte turned into a 104-65 disaster, but that has just helped open the door to a SYSTEM that in the past five years has been literally automatic in “revenge” setups such as this.  Here is a mind boggling "23-4" SYSTEM (85% past five years) which plays ON "rested" underdogs like Miami revenging a road blowout loss of at least 30 points against an opponent, playing just for the 2nd time in 5 days.  That near automatic system favors Miami in what is in my opinion the single biggest “revenge” setup of the entire pro hardwood campaign

 

SPECIAL 5-UNIT ESPN-TV EVENT COVERS MONDAY

The fourth college basketball “5 Unit” bombshell of the season cashes Monday in a very unique situation (60-53 final score)

 

TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” NATIONAL-TV COLLEGE REDZONE BEST BET (William+Mary +9 versus Old Dominion in the Colonial Conference Championship game tipping off at 7:05 eastern on ESPN):  The bottom line is that this pick involves an almost unheard of handicapping situation which is why I am pounding underdog William+Mary both plus the generous points and on the “money line” (+350).  It is amazing that William+Mary is one of only 5 “original” teams at the Division I level that has NEVER made the NCAA Tournament and of course with an upset win this evening the Tribe would finally be eligible for the Big Dance.  Back in 2008 William+Mary actually made it all the way to the Colonial Conference Championship game but this time around they are on an “even” playing field with their opponent.  Two years ago William+Mary was playing their “fourth game in four days” and simply ran out of gas in the Championship tilt but tonight courtesy of an opening round “bye” the Tribe are having to play on their third game of the postseason tournament.  It is understandable that the oddsmakers have posted Old Dominion as a prohibitive favorite tonight since they are the #1 seed and traditionally favorites have done very well in the championship tilt.  But the fact of the matter is that Old Dominion in a semifinal game yesterday was extended into OVERTIME in a contest where they had to exert a lot of energy by coming back from a massive double-digit deficit in the second half.  Due to that both emotional and long game yesterday, one can argue that William+Mary has a decided advantage tonight as they facing a mentally exhausted opponent.  For those of you who may not be aware William+Mary for the first time in SCHOOL HISTORY has “double digit” wins this season on the ROAD including a pair of shocking upsets at Wake Forest and Maryland where the oddsmakers were giving them 12’+ points to work with.  William+Mary comes into this championship game feeling very good about themselves after pulling out a TWO point thriller yesterday even though the squad tallied only 16 points in the entire second-half.  To make a long story short William+Mary plays together as “a team” as they are both selfless and trust each other.  In my opinion it is “destiny” time for William+Mary as they not only won a two-point thriller in the semifinals yesterday, there opponent Northeastern actually missed SEVEN game tying or game winning chance on their final possession.  Even though Old Dominion is a #1 seed in this tournament my research indicates that they are only 9-19 ATS long term in “neutral court” setups such as this.  Here is a 70-PERCENT SYSTEM (61-27 past twelve years) which plays ON underdogs like William+Mary who have played below the posted total by more than 6 points in 3 consecutive games, against an opponent who in a seven-game stretch have played above the total by 42+ combined points.  That system favors William+Mary who is a stunning 12-3 ATS this season when cast as an underdog.  Due to the reasons stated at the top of this analysis segment I actually expect William+Mary to pull off the outright upset and advance to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history

 

*****”4-1” Basketball Best Bet weekend where all hardwood premium releases produced a stellar “10-3” mark*****

 

“12-16” all college postseason tournament wagers so far

 

*****MONTHLY Package extends through NCAA Championship and more (4/5)*****

 

 

8-0 SATURDAY PREMIUM SWEEP

 

--“4 Unit” NATIONAL-TV ESPN monster Louisville (+1) COVERS in a 78-68 rout of #1 ranked Syracuse (final game at Freedom Hall)

--“4 Unit” TOURNAMENT monster Loyola-Marymount (-1’) COVERS in a 84-76 West Coast Conference triumph versus San Francisco

--“4 Unit” TOTALS monster Washington State/Oregon OVER (134) WINS in a 74-66 Pac-Ten contest

--CBS-TV Total West Virginia/Villanova UNDER (152) WINS with ease 68-66 despite OVERTIME

--Big South Conference Championship Winthrop (+9’) OUTRIGHT upset at Coastal Carolina on ESPN2

--Ohio Valley Conference Championship Murray State (-4) COVERS in a 62-51 win against Morehead State on ESPN2

--SEC Network Alabama (-5’) COVERS in a 73-61 home rout of Auburn

--NBA Pacers (+12’) COVER in a 113-105 late night shootout at Suns

 

11-8-1 MARCH COLLEGE BEST BETS

 

--3/10 “4 Unit” TOURNAMENT monster total Texas/Baylor UNDER (146) fails in a 86-67 contest (five year “26-4” system goes down)

--3/10 Virginia (+5) OUTRIGHT 68-62 upset of Boston College

--3/10 “4 Unit” Big 12 monster Oklahoma (+7) fails to cover in a 81-67 tournament setback versus rival Oklahoma State

--3/10 Colorado (-1) loses 82-67 versus an opponent who had lost 7 in a row (Big 12 Tournament)

--3/9 ESPNU Total Rutgers/Cincinnati OVER (131’) WINS in a 69-68 Big East tournament opening round thriller

--3/8 Special “5 Unit” NATIONAL-TV ESPN bombshell William+Mary (+9) COVERS in a 60-53 Colonial Championship tussle

--3/8 ESPN Total William+Mary/Old Dominion OVER (117) fails in a game with just 113 combined points scored

--3/7 CBS Total Florida/Kentucky OVER (141) misses by ONE point in a 74-66 verdict

--3/7 Tournament Boston University (-2’) COVERS in a 70-63 road triumph from the America-East Conference

--3/6 “4 Unit” NATIONAL-TV ESPN monster Louisville (+1) COVERS in a 78-68 rout of #1 ranked Syracuse (final game at Freedom Hall)

--3/6 “4 Unit” TOURNAMENT monster Loyola-Marymount (-1’) COVERS in a 84-76 West Coast Conference triumph versus San Francisco

--3/6 “4 Unit” TOTALS monster Washington State/Oregon OVER (134) WINS in a 74-66 Pac-Ten contest

--3/5 Georgia Southern (+1’) with six SENIORS on roster suffer humiliating double-digit Southern Conference opening round tournament loss

--3/4 “4 Unit” marquee Dayton (+4) PUSHES in 60-56 road contest where Dayton held a halftime lead at Richmond

--3/4 WAC Total New Mexico State/Nevada OVER (163) WINS with ease in 100-92 shootout

--3/3 Alabama-Birmingham (-3) loses outright in home finale as “4 year” losing streak against rival Memphis continued

--3/2 College Upset of Year Colorado (+5) OUTRIGHT at Nebraska snapping 36-game conference road losing skid

--3/2 Opening TOURNAMENT Best Bet Murray State (-20’) COVERS with ease in a 84-51 opening round Ohio Valley Conference rout

--3/1 ESPN Total Georgetown/West Virginia UNDER (136’) fails in a 81-68 contest

--3/1 ESPN Total Oklahoma/Texas OVER (145) WINS in a 87-76 shootout

 

 

10-14 COLLEGE POSTSEASON TOURNAMENT WAGERS

 

--3/11 BEST BET Virginia (+5) OUTRIGHT 68-62 upset of Boston College

--3/11 BEST BET Texas/Baylor UNDER (146) fails in a 86-67 contest (five-year “26-4” system goes down)

--3/10 BEST BET Oklahoma (+7) fails to cover a 81-67 setback versus rival Oklahoma State

--3/10 BEST BET Colorado (-1) loses outright versus opponent who had dropped 7 games in a row

--3/10 Tulsa (-14) fails to cover a 73-62 straight-up Conference USA contest

--3/10 Marquette (-4) fails to cover a 57-55 straight-up Big East contest

--3/10 Washington State (-1’) loses an 82-80 OVERTIME tussle in the Pac-10

--3/9 BEST BET Rutgers/Cincinnati OVER (131’) WINS in a 69-68 Big East tournament opening round thriller

--3/9 Princeton (-12’) fails to cover by a HOOK in a 68-56 outright home triumph

--3/9 Seton Hall (-6) fails to cover even though winning straight-up 106-103 in the Big East tournament opening round

--3/9 Depaul/South Florida OVER (124’) fails in a 58-49 Big East Tournament opening round tilt

--3/8 BEST BET William+Mary (+9) COVERS in a 60-53 Colonial Conference championship tilt

--3/8 BEST BET William+Mary/Old Dominion OVER (117) fails in a game with just 113 combined points scored

--3/8 Oral Roberts (+3) fails to cover by ONE points in a 69-65 contest from the Summit League

--3/7 BEST BET Boston University (-2’) COVERS in a 70-63 road triumph from the America-East conference

--3/7 Loyola-Marymount (+12) fails to cover in a 77-62 West Coast Conference setback versus Gonzaga

--3/6 BEST BET Loyola-Marymount (-1’) COVERS with ease in a 84-76 West Coast Conference quarterfinal

--3/6 Big South Championship Winthrop (+9’) OUTRIGHT road upset

--3/6 Ohio Valley Championship Murray State (-4) COVERS in a 62-51 triumph

--3/5 Georgia Southern (+1’) with six SENIORS on roster suffer humiliating double-digit Southern Conference opening round loss

--3/4 Monmouth (+13’) COVERS in a 84-75 road contest which they actually led at halftime (Northeast Conference quarterfinal)

--3/3 Lafayette (-7’) COVERS in a 73-65 home triumph from the opening round of the Patriot League tournament

--3/2 Tennessee Tech/Austin Peay OVER (150) fails in a Ohio Valley tournament opening round game with 133 combined points scored

--3/2 BEST BET Murray State (-20’) COVERS in an opening round 84-51 home blowout from the Ohio Valley tournament

 

*****MONTHLY Package extends through NCAA Championship and more (4/5)*****

 

59-55 all PREMIUM sides+totals in month of February

13-6 all college basketball BEST BETS in month of January

77-60 college regular season FOOTBALL in 2009

19-11 college football postseason BOWL releases in 2009/2010

146-128 all college BASKETBALL in 2008/2009

 

 

ALL “BEST BETS” 158-150 SINCE MONTH OF AUGUST

 

ALL PREMIUM COLLEGE BASKETBALL 22-24-1 IN MARCH

 

 

SUNDAY BEST BETS

The Florida/Kentucky CBS total came ONE point away from cashing the ticket, however Boston University successfully COVERED the spread in a postseason tournament Best Bet.  Sunday’s premium report was ruined by a are home failure by the Chicago Blackhawks (5-4 final score)

 

TODAY’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” REDZONE HOCKEY BEST BET (Blackhawks -170 at home versus Red Wings in a 12:35 eastern faceoff broadcast nationally on NBC):  It was exactly one week ago when the USA/Canada Olympic hockey Gold Medal showcase drew a bigger United States audience than any non-Olympic TV sports event outside of the NFL and college football’s BCS Title game.  Today marks the first network telecast for the NHL since NBC drew that monster rating a week ago.  I find it interesting that the league has decided to “showcase” the Chicago Blackhawks the next pair of Sunday’s on NBC’s “game of the week” which is very telling considering that both Pittsburgh and Washington have the two most marketable players (Crosby, Ovechkin) who are the two best scorers.  The bottom line is that the NHL and it’s network TV partner feel that Chicago has suddenly become the most exciting team in the league to watch as this franchise after a decade of futility suddenly is back among the NHL elite.  Today will mark the 82nd consecutive HOME SELLOUT for the Blackhawks who have established record local TV ratings and literally tripling sales of team merchandise.  Chicago who has not hoisted the Stanley Cup in nearly 50 years made a shocking playoff run to the Western Conference finals a year ago and the team is currently among the “top four” in NHL total points, goals and goals against.  The Blackhawks’ speed and ability to control the puck in the offensive zone are the keys to this young group which is now considered among the most talented and entertaining teams to watch.  A grand total of SIX different Blackhawks made it to the Olympic Gold Medal game and Jonathan Toews (21) who is the league’s youngest team captain was named the best forward of the entire Olympic tournament.  Fellow third-year forward Patrick Kane had a pair of assists to the USA in the gold-medal game and a pair of goals in the semifinal round.  What excites me most about the Blackhawks is that they lead the league in FEWEST shots-on-goal allowed helping goaltenders Cristobal Huet (2.29 GAA) and Antii Niemi (2.16) to have a Top-10 NHL ranking.  Chicago’s resurgence began when they hired Hall-of-Famer and former Detroit head coach Scotty Bowman as senior advisor of operations.  Bowman actually coached 9 different Stanley Cup winning teams and knows what he is doing.  The Blackhawks also have brought back some of their former stars like Bobby Hull to the United Center which is playing to 107-PERCENT of capacity averaging more than 21-thousand fans per game.  NHL diehards know that the mere fact that Detroit has been cast as a prohibitive underdog is amazing when you consider that this team which is based in what is known as “hockey town” has won 8 consecutive divisional titles and has been one of the league’s best squads.  To make a long story shot Detroit this campaign is just battling to become eligible for the postseason as they are for the moment barely clinging to a #8 and final playoff seed.  The situation is completely different for Chicago (43-16-5) who today is seeking to sweep a 4-game season series from their rivals.  Detroit just happens to be a disastrous 1-10 this year when revenging a “close” loss (1 or less goals) against an opponent.  Chicago just happens to be a mind boggling 14-1/HOME this year against poor defensive opponents and “17-3” the past three campaigns at the United Center when off consecutive contests where the offense tallied at least 4 goals.  In NBC’s first hockey telecast since the Olympics they have chosen Chicago as the “showcase” squad which speaks volumes

 

SATURDAY MARQUEE BEST BET NATIONAL-TV WIN

8-0 premium sweep Saturday highlighted by a 78-68 ESPN televised win by Louisville as they close Freedom Hall by dominating the nation’s #1 ranked squad

 

TODAY’S “4 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET (Louisville +1 at home versus Syracuse in a 2:05 eastern tipoff broadcast on ESPN):  Considering that today is the final game at Louisville’s Freedom Hall which has hosted Louisville basketball since the mid-1950’s one could argue that ESPN should have had this clash as the “hyped” primetime telecast.  Louisville has won roughly 80-PERCENT of their games at Freedom Hall which has given them annually an excellent homecourt advantage as there is literally not a bad seat in the house.  But more important than this being the Freedom Hall swansong is the fact that Louisville can essentially assure themselves of an NCAA at-large tournament bid this afternoon in a contest that is critical for a squad that has been the model of inconsistency.  Louisville’s problems began way back in the summer when head coach Rick Pitino went public regarding a multi-million dollar extortion attempt tied to an admitted sexual encounter.  Despite the Louisville administration sticking by his side there were constant rumors when the season began that Pitino would eventually bolt the program for a return to the NBA.  In the “non” conference portion of the schedule Louisville as a team suffered a pair of shocking losses to the likes of Charlotte and Western Carolina.  Then there was the early season 1-4 slide in Big East Conference play which put this program squarely on the NCAA bubble.  Even though Pitino has admitted to his team’s severe defensive deficiencies like any marquee head coach he has his Cardinals playing their best down the stretch even though Tuesday’s road loss at Marquette was a bit surprising.  The opening line for today’s ESPN telecast opened at most offshore locales at a virtual “pick em” price which in itself was a shock considering that Syracuse is currently ranked #1 in the country and is attempting to become the first team from the Big East to go undefeated on the ROAD in 11 years.  Another reason why this line was so strange is the fact that Syracuse today is REVENGING a stunning home loss against Louisville just last month so in my mind the oddsmakers have made a loud statement.  For those of you who may not be aware Syracuse was actually “unranked” when the initial preseason national poll was released and they were picked to finish around the #6 mark in the Big East standings so this has been a stunning campaign for the Orange who are now defying the odds.  To put this situation in proper perspective Syracuse is the first team in 20 years to go from unranked in the preseason all the way up to a #1 national ranking.  It was exactly one week ago on a Saturday afternoon when we saw the #1 ranked (Kansas) and #2 ranked squads (Kentucky) suffer upset losses on the ROAD and one week later that is exactly where we find Syracuse. It is ironic that last Saturday in an ESPN marquee primetime telecast Syracuse was the only high-ranked squad to basically survive as they blew out Villanova even though it was a home game.  Despite the fact that head coach Jim Boeheim has done an outstanding job I personally have a problem with a “sheltered” schedule that has seen Syracuse have the opportunity to have their FANS in attendance on foreign hardwood.  Basically the Orange played “inside their home state” for the initial TWO MONTHS of the season including “preseason” tournament games played at New York’s Madison Square Garden.  Due to geographic advantages a very young Syracuse squad was given time to gel WITHOUT having to take a long plane ride.  The longest trip made by the Orange this season was to Chicago where a horrible Depaul squad came a mere three-pointer away from pulling off an outright upset. For those who may not remember 12 of the initial 16 Syracuse games this season were played on their own home court.  The bottom line is that due to the relative small dimensions of Freedom Hall this is one of the very few games this season where Syracuse will NOT have their own fans cheering from the stands.  In this Syracuse/Louisville series the Cardinals are actually on a current 6-1 ATS roll and I see that trend continuing this afternoon

 

SATURDAY MARQUEE BEST BET POSTSEASON TOURNAMENT WIN

Loyola-Marymount continued one of the nation’s biggest turnarounds with an 84-76 West Coast Conference Saturday victory

 

TONIGHT’S “4 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET TOURNAMENT BEST BET (Loyola-Marymount -1’ versus San Francisco in a 9:05 eastern tipoff from the West Coast Conference Tournament that can be viewed on-line at ESPN360.com):  Even though San Francisco (4) has a higher seed than Loyola-Marymount (5) it is interesting to see that the lower seed has actually been cast as the favorite in the postseason tournament contest being played in Las Vegas.  Last night Loyola-Marymount (-9) failed to cover an inflated spread in part because they were facing a geographic rival.  Another reason why they won outright but failed to cover the spread last night was because Pepperdine entered the contest (0-9-1 ATS) on a severe spread slide so the “law of averages” kicked in.  Obviously this evening we get one of college basketball’s very quiet success stories at a substantially cheaper price tag and I am taking full advantage.  Loyola Marymount has the most wins (17) since way back in the 1995/96 campaign and during the regular season was an excellent investment (10-5 ATS) on the road.  To put this in proper perspective Marymount’s “13-game improvement” from last season is the second biggest turnaround in the ENTIRE NATION as the Lions have taken advantage of imported players from other programs.  Drew Viney was just elected to the “all conference first team” and he originally signed with Oregon after a stellar high school career.  Marymount down the stretch got back the services of injured import Larry Davis who actually spent time at both North Carolina State and Seton Hall where he gained valuable in-game experience.  Both Drew Viney and Vernon Teel became just the 11th duo from Loyola-Marymount to be honored on the “all west coast conference first team”.  For those who may not be aware Marymont this season stunned Notre Dame outright on the road and they also defeated nationally ranked Gonzaga.  As for San Francisco they come in with the higher seeding (7-7 league record) only because they defeated Marymount twice during the regular season which sets up a DOUBLE-REVENGE situation tonight.  San Francisco actually started this season with a poor 3-9 record with one of the triumphs coming against a Division II opponent.  Here is a whopping “24-5” SYSTEM (83% last twelve years) which plays AGAINST “neutral court” teams like San Francisco (win percentage 40-to-49 on season) after beating the spread by 36+ totals points in a five-game span.  As for Loyola Marymount they are 8-2 ATS this season when playing on “short rest”.  It was 20 years ago when Loyola-Marymount made an emotional deep run in the NCAA Tournament following the shocking death of star Hank Gathers in a West Coast Conference postseason tournament tilt

 

SATURDAY MARQUEE BEST BET TOTALS WIN

Oregon closes out an 83-year run on their home floor with a high scoring 74-66 contest

 

TONIGHT’S “4 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET TOTAL (Washington State at Oregon OVER 134 in a 8:05 eastern tipoff):  This is the second Best Bet involving the closure of a long-time facility as tonight marks the final regular season game for Oregon at McArthur court as the school is ending an 83-YEAR run at that facility.  Even though it has been a disastrous season for Oregon I am expecting them to close this building with a wild and “wide open” affair just like the thrilling 91-89 DOUBLE-OVERTIME shootout against Washington State played way back on New Years Eve.  Most of you reading this analysis are familiar with long time Washington State head coach Tony Bennett who in the offseason bolted the program for more money and is now employed by Virginia in the eastern time zone.  Bennett for years executed the slow-down and “half court” style of offense which is why most Washington State totals were way down in the 120’s and at times even lower.  Even though the Cougars are bring headed by OFFENSIVE oriented head coach Ken Bone who made a name for himself by being part of the wide open Big Sky Conference, this team has actually played below the spot EIGHT times in the most recent ten outings.  I want all of you to be aware that in the past five games both Washington State (55 ppg) and Oregon (62 ppg) have had severe offensive problems.  But be aware that the posted total in the initial Cougars/Ducks season encounter was substantially higher (145’) than it is this evening where we have excellent “value”.  One of the keys to this selection is that both teams have star offensive players that are breaking out of shooting slumps down the stretch.  Tonight is the final home game for Oregon’s Tajuan Porter who just happens to be the school’s all-time “three point” leader nailing 336 shots from behind the arc.  In a recent stretch Porter went 6 entire games posting just “single digits” but he exploded for 29 POINTS (7 of 9 from behind the arc) in a recent road triumph at UCLA.  Early this season Klay Thompson was actually LEADING THE NATION in scoring but he has had a severe dropoff for Washington State in the past three games (4-for-35 from the field).  The bottom line is that this game has a pair of “undervalued” sharpshooters seeking to end the regular campaign on the uptick.  In the coaching career of current Washington State mentor Ken Bone his teams have played OVER the spot at approaching a 70-PERCENT slip (28-14) when the posted total is in the 130’s which is the case tonight

 

“COLLEGE UPSET OF THE YEAR” LAST TUESDAY (WINS OUTRIGHT)

The opening MARQUEE Best Bet of March saw Colorado as expected putting an end to a massive 36-game conference road losing streak (81-68 OUTRIGHT triumph)

 

TONIGHT’S “4 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET (Colorado +5 at Nebraska in a 8:05 eastern tipoff that is on-line at ESPN360.com):  The following may come as a shock but Colorado has actually lost 36 consecutive conference road games and tonight is their last shot in this particular campaign to finally put that streak of futility to an end against an opponent who has a horrible “2-12” Big 12 conference record.  Nebraska is in a classic “emotional letdown” spot after pulling off a DOUBLE OVERTIME victory on Saturday where they rallied from a massive 14-point deficit to pull off an upset of Texas Tech.  Normally it is dangerous to bet against a team like Nebraska on “senior night” but according to my database research the Cornhuskers are a very poor 6-17 ATS when coming off a “close” win of 6-or-less points which was the case back on Saturday.  Considering that Colorado has lost 36 consecutive road games in league play one would have thought the oddsmakers would have cast them as a substantial underdog tonight so the fact that the spread is only 5 points speaks volumes.  What I love about Colorado as an underdog is that they have set a SCHOOL RECORD this season (.773) as the free-throw line.  For those of you who have followed the Buffalos they have won of the country’s more talented freshmen in guard Alec Burks who is 36 points away from setting a school rookie record in total points scored (445) in a season.  Colorado’s other starting guard Corey Higgins is off a massive 33-POINT effort in a Saturday outright triumph and in the past eleven games he has hit at a vicious clip (.873) from the charity stripe.  Higgins also tops the entire Big 12 Conference in a key defensive category has he is averaging more than 2 STEALS per contest.  Higgins is one of only 13 players in the entire country who leads his team in 5 different statistical categories.  Despite their losing ways on the highway Colorado enters tonight’s game with a decent overall record (13-15) and if they happen to win both of their remaining regular season contests the Buffaloes would be eligible for the postseason NIT Tournament which would give their young players added experience.  During the head coaching reign of Jeff Bzdelik the Buffaloes have suffered 27 different “single digit” setbacks including a game AT #1 ranked Kansas when they climbed out of a massive 21-point hole and lost by only a FIVE point margin.  Going back to the database here is a an UNDEFEATED angle that sees Colorado 7-0 ATS/ROAD the past three years when off an outright conference victory.  To recap Colorado can snap a 36-game conference road losing streak tonight against an opponent who has a horrible Big 12 Conference record (2-12) and is coming off a draining “double overtime” affair.  Due to the unusual factors this large personal investment comes with the label of “college upset of the year” where I am also adding a small additional “money line” wager (+175) and you are invited to join me

 

7-4 SUNDAY BEST BETS PAST SIX WEEKS

 

--3/7 NHL Special Blackhawks (-170) lose at home 5-4 in NBC telecast

--3/7 CBS total Florida/Kentucky OVER (141) misses by ONE point in a 74-66 contest

--3/7 College Tournament Boston University (-2’) COVERS in 70-63 road triumph

--2/28 Indiana (+6’) fails to cover in a 73-57 pounding at Iowa

--2/28 OLYMPIC HOCKEY (USA/Canada UNDER 5’ goals) WINS in a 3-2 overtime thriller

--2/21 Ohio State/Michigan OVER (135) WINS in a CBS broadcast with 141 combined points scored

--2/14 Marist (+20) COVERS in a 70-51 contest at Niagra

--2/7 Saints/Colts UNDER (57) WINS in the Super Bowl with 48 combined points scored

--2/7 Canisius (+6) COVERS in tight 73-72 road game at Saint Peters

--1/31 Pro Bowl OVER (57’) WINS in a 41-34 NFL All-Star shootout

--“22-13” all Sunday NFL regular season Best Bets

 

 

 

91-94 premium college basketball past sixty-one days

59-55 all PREMIUM sides+totals in month of February

 

 

MARQUEE BEST BET “SIDES+TOTALS” (4 Units or higher) 12-11 PAST THIRTY-TWO DAYS

 

--SUPER SUNDAY “5 Unit” Super Bowl Total UNDER (57) WINS with ease as Saints/Colts combine for 48 points

--2/11 NHL special “4 Unit” monster Senators (+110) WINS in 6-5 home triumph versus Capitals who recently had 14-0 run snapped

--2/13 College “4 Unit” Total Missouri/Baylor UNDER (145) WINS with ease in low scoring game with just 126 combined points scored

--2/17 ESPN “5 Unit” Total Suns/Mavericks UNDER (215’) WINS in contest with just 204 combined points scored

--2/18 “4 Unit” Sun Belt Game of the Year Florida International (+4) COVERS in 77-74 contest against rival Florida Atlantic

--2/19 “4 Unit” Total William+Mary/Iona OVER (124) barely misses in ESPNU telecast with 122 combined points scored

--2/20 ESPN2 “5 Unit” bracketbuster Siena (+8) fails to cover in 70-53 contest where they led outright at halftime on the road

--2/20 ESPN “4 Unit” primetime Washington (-11’) COVERS with ease in 97-68 home rout of UCLA

--2/24 “4 Unit” monster Wichita State (-3) fails to cover in a 75-73 setback at Bradley

--2/25 ESPN2 NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR Tulsa (+18’) COVERS in 70-52 contest at Duke where the heavy underdog trailed by just FOUR points at halftime

--2/26 “4 Unit” NBA monster Timberwolves (+9’) fail to cover a 109-92 road setback

--2/27 ESPN “5 Unit” event Villanova (+5’) fails to cover in a 95-77 setback at Syracuse

--2/27 “4 Unit” monster Georgia Tech (-7’) fails to cover a 73-68 home contest (despite a 12 point lead with just 22-seconds remaining)

--2/28 “4 Unit” Big 10 Game of the Year Indiana (+6’) failed to cover a 73-57 road contest at Iowa

--3/2 “4 Unit” College UPSET of the Year Colorado (+5) wins OUTRIGHT by a 81-68 count as they finally snapped a massive 36-game road losing streak

--3/4 “4 Unit” monster Dayton (+4) PUSHES in 60-56 road contest they led outright at halftime 

--3/6 “4 Unit” NATIONAL-TV ESPN monster Louisville (+1) COVERS in a 78-68 rout of #1 ranked Syracuse (final game at Freedom Hall)

--3/6 “4 Unit” TOURNAMENT monster Loyola-Marymount (-1’) COVERS in a 84-76 West Coast Conference triumph versus San Francisco

--3/6 “4 Unit” TOTALS monster Washington State/Oregon OVER (134) WINS in a 74-66 Pac-Ten contest

--3/7 “5 Unit” NBC/NHL special Blackhawks (-170) fail at home 5-4

--3/8 “5 Unit” ESPN bombshell William+Mary (+9) COVERS in a 60-53 Colonial Conference championship special

--3/9 “4 Unit” NBA monster Heat (+3’) fails to cover by a HOOK in a 83-78 final road verdict

--3/10 “4 Unit” TOURNAMENT monster Oklahoma (+7) loses 81-67 versus in-state rival Oklahoma State

--3/11 “4 Unit” TOURNAMENT monster Texas/Baylor UNDER (146) fails in a 86-67 contest (five year “26-4” system goes down)

 

 

SPECIAL ESPN-TV “5 UNIT” BEST BET EVENT WINS ON 2/17

In an NBA telecast on 2/17 just 204 combined points scored

 

TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET NATIONAL-TV TOTAL (Suns at Mavericks UNDER 215’ in a 9:05 eastern tipoff broadcast nationally on ESPN):  Of course the big news these days in the NBA is the upcoming trade deadline and Dallas certainly was active in that department during the All-Star break pulling off a “seven player” deal with Washington highlighted by Caron Butler going from a Wizards to a Mavericks uniform.  Butler had a fan during his days in the Eastern Conference as a guy named LeBron James called him quote “tough” and that is exactly the player that Dallas needs.  What I found interesting about the just completed Mavericks/Wizards trade was that Dallas owner Mark Cuban was NOT going to do the deal unless former North Carolina center and SEVEN-FOOTER Brendan Haywood was involved.  I can see why Cuban demanded Haywood’s services since he is an athletic player who has both SHOT BLOCKING and other DEFENSIVE abilities.  For the entire season to date Haywood is averaging 6.3 rebounds and 1’ blocked shots per contest and he is a monster presence down low in the paint for opposing players who like to drive the lane.  It was obvious to Cuban that his Mavericks had to “toughen up” because in the final three games before the All-Star Break the defense was torched (127,117,117) three consecutive times.  What made that defensive slump so shocking is that current Dallas headman Rick Carlisle has always been known as a “defensive oriented” head coach.  It came as no personal shock that Dallas last night in their initial post All-Star break outing played UNDER the total in a 99-86 setback.  What was a bit surprising though was the Mavericks offense which scored a grand total of only ELEVEN points in the entire third quarter.  With 3 new members of the team coming via trade it is going to take some time for Dallas to gain offensive chemistry and last night after halftime the entire team put only 32 points on the scoreboard while regular center Erick Dampier (dislocated finger) exited early.  Another stunning result from last night was the fact that the Phoenix DEFENSE held Memphis to a season-LOW shooting percentage (35.6%) enroute to a 109-95 road triumph.  The Suns defense allowed only 32 points in the paint which was eye opening simply because the Grizzlies came into the contest averaging a NBA-Best mark (51.6) in average points produced in the paint.  Of course one does not think of Phoenix as a defensive squad since for the past eight years they have sat atop the NBA in average offensive production and this year (110 ppg) is no different as the Suns are nailing 41% of their “three point” long range opportunities.  When one looks closely at the Phoenix offense they thrive on the various pick-and-rolls created by both Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire.  The problem with Stoudemire is that any day now will be his last in a Suns uniform as trade rumors persist.  In last night’s road triumph Phoenix another Phoenix All-Star Steve Nash took a grand total of only FOUR shots from the field due to an ailing back that started to bother him in pre-game warmups.  It was a very busy All-Star break for Nash who participated in the Olympic opening ceremonies in his native country.  Nash also was part of the West squad in the All-Star game and just the day prior won the skills competition.  To make a long story short Nash has had extremely little rest and his BACK issues are bound to have a negative affect on the entire Suns offense.  It is interesting to note that Phoenix is actually an outstanding “20-6” this season when their defense holds the opposition to BELOW 100 points and that is what they did last night.  Ever since taking the head coaching reigns in Phoenix Alvin Gentry according to his star center has actually spent some time teaching DEFENSE which is something Mike D’Antoni virtually ignored during his tenure in the Valley of the Sun.  The Suns come into tonight having won 6 of the past 7 games outright and my database research indicates that Phoenix is 12-4 UNDER the total for the entire season after successfully covering the spread at a 5-1 clip.  These two teams met last month in a 112-106 shootout which helped inflate tonight’s total.  Dallas just happens to be 13-5 UNDER the total this season when “revenging” a loss against an opponent.  In his lengthy coaching career current Dallas mentor Rick Carlisle is a whopping 10-1 UNDER/HOME after consecutive games where his teams made less than 40% of their shot attempts from the floor

 

32-28 PREMIUM “TOTALS” RUN

 

68-77 premium sides+totals since Super Sunday

 

 

SAINTS-AND-UNDER

A record setting football season concludes with a “5 UNIT” Best Bet triumph

 

 

68-77 SIDES-AND-TOTALS PAST THIRTY-ONE DAYS

 

--Thursday BEST BET Virginia (+5) OUTRIGHT upset of Boston College

--Thursday BEST BET Texas/Baylor UNDER (146) fails in a 86-67 contest

--Thursday Houston (+6’) OUTRIGHT upset of Memphis

--Thursday Southern Mississippi (+5’) OUTRIGHT upset of Alabama-Birmingham

--Thursday Texas (pick) loses 86-67 versus Baylor

--Thursday Clemson (-7) loses outright against NC State

--Thursday Blazers (-6) fail to cover in a straight-up “five point” win

--Wednesday BEST BET Oklahoma (+7) fails to cover 81-67 versus rival Oklahoma State

--Wednesday BEST BET Colorado (-1) loses outright against opponent who had dropped 7 in a row

--Wednesday Marquette (-4) fails to cover a 57-55 straight-up win

--Wednesday Tulsa (-14) fails to cover a 73-62 straight-up win

--Wednesday Washington State (-1’) loses outright by bucket in OVERTIME

--Wednesday Raptors/Kings OVER (210) fails in an NBA game with just 203 combined points scored

--Tuesday BEST BET Rutgers/Cincinnati OVER (131’) WINS in a 69-68 Big East tournament contest

--Tuesday BEST BET Heat (+3’) fails by a BUCKET in a 83-78 road contest in the NBA

--Tuesday Princeton (-12’) fails to cover by a HOOK in a 68-56 straight-up home win versus rival Pennsylvania

--Tuesday Seton Hall (-6) fails to cover a straight-up 109-106 Big East tournament triumph

--Tuesday Depaul/South Florida OVER (124’) fails in a 58-49 Big East final verdict

--Monday BEST BET William+Mary (+9) COVERS in a 60-53 Colonial Championship ESPN tussle

--Monday BEST BET William+Mary/Old Dominion OVER (117) fails in a game with just 113 points scored

--Monday Oral Roberts (+3) fails to cover by ONE point in a 69-65 contest

--Monday Timberwolves (+6’) fails to cover in a 125-112 home NBA setback versus Mavericks

--Monday Warriors/Hornets UNDER (215) fails miserably in a 135-131 shootout

---Sunday BEST BET Blackhawks (-170) lose 5-4 at home in NHL/NBC telecast

--Sunday BEST BET Florida/Kentucky OVER (141) loses by ONE point in a 74-66 CBS televised contest

--Sunday BEST BET Boston University (-2’) COVERS in a 70-63 postseason tournament road triumph

--Sunday Illinois (+3’) lose 72-57 in home finale

--Sunday Loyola-Marymount (+12) loses 77-62 in conference tournament play

--Sunday NBA Pistons (+2) COVER in a 110-107 home triumph

--Saturday BEST BET Louisville (+1) OUTRIGHT upset of #1 Syracuse

--Saturday BEST BET Washington State/Oregon OVER (134) WINS in a 74-66 contest

--Saturday BEST BET Loyola-Marymount (-1’) COVERS in a 84-76 West Coast Conference tournament triumph

--Saturday West Virginia/Villanova UNDER (152) WINS despite OT in a 68-66 televised CBS contest

--Saturday Alabama (-5’) COVERS in a 73-61 home rout

--Saturday Winthrop (+9’) OUTRIGHT upset in the Big South Championship

--Saturday Murray State (-4) COVERS in a 62-51 Ohio Valley Championship victory

--Saturday NBA Pacers (+12’) COVERS in a 113-105 road contest at Suns

--Friday BEST BET Georgia Southern (+1’) with six SENIORS on roster suffers double-digit conference tournament setback

--Friday NBA Kings (+8’) COVER in a 108-100 road verdict

--Friday Cleveland State/Wisconsin-Milwaukee UNDER (134’) fails in a 82-75 tournament contest

--Friday Jacksonville/Mercer UNDER (147) WINS in a low scoring tournament game with 129 combined points scored

--Thursday BEST BET Dayton (+4) PUSHES in 60-56 road contest they actually led at halftime

--Thursday BEST BET New Mexico State/Nevada OVER (163) WINS with ease in a 100-92 shootout

--Thursday Providence/Pittsburgh OVER (150) fails in a 73-71 ESPN contest

--Thursday Monmouth (+13’) COVERS in a 84-75 postseason tournament game they actually led at halftime

--Wednesday BEST BET Alabama-Birmingham (-3) loses outright in home finale

--Wednesday BEST BET Clippers (+4) lose by 26-point snapping a 4-game home winning streak

--Wednesday BEST BET Sabres (+120) lose at home in first game back with Olympic star goaltender Ryan Miller

--Wednesday Rhode Island (-8’) COVERS in a 80-58 rout of Charlotte

--Wednesday Lafayette (-7’) COVERS in a 73-65 postseason tournament home triumph

--3/1 Tuesday BEST BET Colorado (+5) OUTRIGHT 81-68 road upset as they snapped a 36-game conference losing skid on the highway

--3/1 Tuesday BEST BET Murray State (-20’) WINS in a 84-51 rout in the opening round of the Ohio Valley Tournament

--3/1 Tuesday Marshall (-2) loses outright 80-76 as a seven-game home win streak was snapped

--3/1 Tuesday Georgia Tech (+7) fails to cover in a 91-80 road setback

--3/1 Tuesday Tennessee Tech/Austin Peay OVER (150) fails in an Ohio Valley Conference opening round tournament 68-65 verdict

--2/28 Monday BEST BET Georgetown/West Virginia UNDER (136’) fails in a 81-68 ESPN verdict

--2/28 Monday BEST BET Oklahoma/Texas OVER (145) WINS in a high scoring 87-76 ESPN shootout

--2/28 Monday NBA Bobcats (-3) fail to cover in a 89-84 home loss versus Mavericks

--2/27 Sunday BEST BET Indiana (+6’) fails to cover in ugly 73-57 road setback at struggling Iowa

--2/27 Sunday OLYMPIC GOLD MEDAL BEST BET TOTAL “USA/Canada” UNDER (5’) WINS in a 3-2 overtime hockey thriller

--2/27 Sunday Seton Hall (-2’) loses outright by ONE point at home

--2/27 Sunday #3 ranked Purdue (-4) loses outright 53-44 at home

--2/27 Sunday Suns/Spurs UNDER (209’) fails in a 113-110 ABC televised shootout

--2/26 Saturday BEST BET Villanova (+5’) fails to cover a 95-77 ESPN road setback at Syracuse

--2/26 Saturday BEST BET Georgia Tech (-7’) fails to cover a 73-68 contest (Georgia Tech was up by TWELVE points with 22-seconds remaining)

--2/26 Saturday BEST BET Total William+Mary/NC Wilmington OVER (131’) fails in a 62-51 contest

--2/26 Saturday Kansas (-5’) loses outright 85-77 at Oklahoma State

--2/26 Saturday Tulsa (-10) COVERS an 85-73 road triumph

--2/26 Saturday Montana State (+10’) OUTRIGHT 73-67 road upset at rival Montana

--2/26 Saturday Florida International (+8’) fails to cover an 88-61 setback on “senior night”

--2/25 Friday BEST BET Timberwolves (+9’) fail to cover in a 109-92 NBA road setback

--2/25 Friday Marist (+9) fail miserably in a 62-39 home setback

--2/24 Thursday BEST BET Northwestern (-9) COVERS with ease in 70-52 home rout of Iowa on ESPN

--2/24 Thursday BEST BET Tulsa (+18’) COVERS in a 70-52 contest where they trailed by only FOUR points at halftime on Duke’s home floor

--2/24 Thursday Wofford (-9’) fails to cover a 74-68 straight-up home win

--2/24 Thursday Appalachian State (-11) fails to cover a 80-74 straight up home win

--2/24 Thursday NBA Warriors (+6) fail to cover a 127-112 home loss versus Nuggets on TNT

--2/23 Wednesday BEST BET Wichita State (-3) fails to cover in 75-73 road setback against Bradley contingent without SUSPENDED lead rebounder and #2 scorer

--2/23 Wednesday BEST BET South Florida/Villanova UNDER (149) WINS with ease in a 74-49 final verdict

--2/23 Wednesday ESPN2 Notre Dame (+1’) OUTRIGHT in 68-53 home romp of Pittsburgh

--2/23 Wednesday St. Johns (+2) PUSHES in 63-61 straight-up home setback versus Marquette in OVERTIME

--2/23 Wednesday Cal-Fullerton/Cal-Poly OVER (148’) fails in a 70-68 contest

--2/23 Wednesday NBA Clippers (-4) COVER in a 97-91 home triumph versus Pistons

--2/22 Tuesday BEST BET Georgia State (+9’) fails to cover in a 75-62 home setback where they actually led in the second-half

--2/22 Tuesday BEST BET Northeastern (-11) stunningly loses their home finale (Northeastern had shot a first conference title since 1991)

--2/22 Tuesday NBA Warriors (+1) lose a 110-102 home decision as a “29-5 System” fails

--2/21 Monday BEST BET Norfolk State (-1’) COVERS with ease in an 82-62 home rout of South Carolina State on ESPNU

--2/21 Monday South Carolina State/Norfolk State OVER (147’) just misses in ESPNU game with 144 combined points scored

--2/21 Monday Knicks (-1) fail to cover in a 83-67 home loss versus Bucks

--2/20 Sunday BEST BET Ohio State/Michigan State OVER (135) WINS in a 74-67 CBS televised contest

--2/20 Sunday NBA Timberwolves (+6’) COVER in a near outright upset (109-107 NBA war with Thunder)

--2/20 Sunday Virginia Tech/Duke OVER (138) fails in FOX-NET telecast with just 122 combined points scored

--2/19 Saturday ESPN PRIMETIME BEST BET Washington (-11’) COVERS with ease in 97-68 rout of UCLA

--2/19 Saturday ESPN2 BEST BET Siena (+8) fails to cover 70-53 on the road as they blew outright halftime lead

--2/19 Saturday BRACKETBUSTER primetime BEST BET Presbyterian (+11’) OUTRIGHT 59-55 upset at Jacksonville State

--2/19 Saturday Saint Josephs (+10) COVERS in 75-67 overtime thriller versus Temple

--2/19 Saturday ESPNU Bracketbuster Western Carolina (+8’) COVERS in a 74-72 thriller at Kent State

--2/19 Saturday USC/Washington State OVER (122’) fails in a 51-47 contest

--2/19 Saturday Northern Colorado (-7) fails to cover in 64-61 straight-up home victory

--2/18 Friday BEST BET William+Mary/Iona OVER (124) misses by a BUCKET in an ESPNU telecast with 122 combined points scored

--2/18 Friday NBA Sixers (+3’) OUTRIGHT in 106-94 home upset of Spurs

--2/18 Friday Columbia/Dartmouth OVER (115’) fails in a 48-44 final verdict

--2/17 Thursday BEST BET Florida International (+4) COVERS in a 77-74 home contest versus main rival Florida Atlantic

--2/17 Thursday ESPN2 BEST BET Syracuse/Georgetown OVER (142’) WINS in a high scoring 75-71 Big East clash

--2/17 Thursday ESPN Minnesota (pick) COVERS in a 68-52 home rout of Wisconsin

--2/17 Thursday UCLA/Washington State OVER (138) fails in a 71-51 contest

--2/17 Thursday TNT/NBA Celtics (+3’) OUTRIGHT 87-86 upset at Lakers

--2/16 Wednesday “5 UNIT” BEST BET Suns/Mavericks UNDER (215’) WINS in ESPN telecast with just 204 combined points scored

--2/16 Wednesday BEST BET Oklahoma State/Iowa State OVER (144’) fails in game with 133 combined points scored

--2/16 Wednesday ESPN2 Notre Dame (+11’) COVERS with ease in 91-89 Double-OT thriller

--2/16 Wednesday South Carolina (+4) fails to cover a 92-79 road setback at Arkansas

--2/16 Wednesday Saint Josephs/Xavier OVER (150’) fails in game with 140 combined points scored

--2/15 Tuesday BEST BET William+Mary (+2’) OUTRIGHT 63-60 road upset at George Mason

--2/15 Tuesday BEST BET Depaul (-4) loses outright at home versus Rutgers after coughing up massive 17-point advantage

--2/15 Tuesday Rockets (+3’) fail to cover in a 104-95 home NBA setback versus Jazz

--2/15 Monday BEST BET Kansas/Texas A+M Aggies OVER (140) fails miserably in a 59-54 final verdict

--2/15 Monday ESPN Connecticut (+9’) OUTRIGHT 84-75 upset at Villanova

--2/14 Sunday BEST BET Marist (+20) COVERS in a 70-51 road contest as five-year system approaching 80-PERCENT clicks again

--2/14 Sunday NBA All-Star game EAST (-1) COVERS in a 141-139 thriller

--2/14 Sunday CBS Total Ohio State/Illinois OVER (137) fails in game with just 125 combined points scored

--2/14 Sunday CBS College Sports Total Saint Josephs/Massachusetts OVER (151) fails in a game with just 132 combined points scored

--2/13 Saturday MARQUEE “4 Unit” Best Bet total Missouri/Baylor UNDER (145) WINS with ease in a very low scoring 64-62 contest

--2/13 Saturday BEST BET side Alabama (-6’) barely fails to cover the spread in as 73-68 straight-up home win against Arkansas

--2/13 Saturday Rhode Island (+4) fails to cover in ugly 78-56 road loss (despite lofty #12 RPI ranking)

--2/13 Saturday Cornell (-5) barely fails to cover the spread in a 48-45 straight-up victory on the road

--2/13 Saturday Saint Mary’s (+1’) fails to cover in OVERTIME (90-85 road setback)

--2/13 Saturday TOTAL Northern Colorado/Weber State OVER (148’) WINS in a 81-76 shootout

--2/12 Friday BEST BET Idaho State (+4’) fails to cover in 68-59 home loss even though their leading scorer returned from injury

--2/12 Friday Canisius (-14’) COVERS in 71-56 home triumph

--2/11 Thursday MARQUEE BEST BET (4 Units) on the Ottawa Senators (+110) WINS in a 6-5 home triumph over Washington whose 14-game NHL win streak was snapped earlier in the week

--2/11 Thursday college BEST BET Indiana-Purdue (-12) barely fails to cover by ONE point in a 88-77 outright road triumph

--2/11 Thursday TOTAL Oregon State/Arizona State UNDER (116) WINS with ease in a very low scoring 56-46 contest

--2/11 Thursday FOX-NET Oregon (+7’) fails to cover in a 70-57 road setback at Arizona

--2/11 Thursday ESPN2 Saint Mary’s (+6) fails to cover in a 80-61 road loss at Gonzaga

--2/10 Wednesday BEST BET Baylor/Nebraska UNDER (133’) WINS with ease in ESPN2 telecast with just 108 combined points scored

--2/10 Wednesday NBA Kings (+4’) OUTRIGHT 103-97 road upset at Pistons

--2/10 Wednesday Rhode Island (-5’) fails to cover in outright home loss versus Richmond

--2/10 Wednesday SEC Network South Carolina (-1’) COVERS in 77-71 home triumph versus Florida

--2/10 Wednesday ESPN2-TV  Idaho (+1’) COVERS in 67-66 home thriller versus Nevada

--2/10 Wednesday CBS College Sports New Mexico/Nevada-Las Vegas UNDER (146) WINS in 76-66 national cable televised contest

--2/9 Tuesday BEST BET Thunder/Blazers UNDER (192) WINS by 26-point margin in very low scoring 89-77 contest

--2/9 Tuesday ESPN Purdue (+2’) OUTRIGHT in 76-64 romp at Michigan State

--2/9 Tuesday NBA Timberwolves/Sixers OVER (205’) WINS with ease in affair with 216 combined points scored

--2/8 Monday BEST BET Siena (-11’) fails to cover even though they extended an outright home win streak to 33 in a row versus banged up opponent

--2/8 Monday ESPN Kansas/Texas UNDER (152) WINS in a 80-68 contest

--2/8 Monday NBA Warriors (+4’) fail to cover and blow a double-digit second half lead in 127-117 home loss

--2/7 Sunday “5 UNIT” Super Bowl Total UNDER (57) WINS in a contest with 48 combined points scored

--2/7 Sunday Super Bowl side Saints (+5) OUTRIGHT 31-17 in stunning upset of Colts

--2/7 Sunday BEST BET college Canisius (+6) COVERS with ease in a near outright upset (73-72 final score)

--2/7 Sunday NHL/NBC special Penguins/Capitals OVER (6’) WINS with ease in a 5-4 marquee shootout

 

 

Football Best Bets wrap up (23-14) since 12/12

All Football BEST BETS 60 PERCENT (71-48) final 100 days of coverage

*****Ranked #1 NFL for the entire regular season plus #1 College Bowls up against the nation’s elite handicappers as professionally monitored at (www.sports-watch.com) *****

 

 

32-27 premium service TOTALS run (including Super Bowl 5-Unit Under)

 

 

ALL SIDES+TOTALS 22-11 FOUR WEEKS AGO

 

--Sunday Super Bowl “5 Unit” BEST BET Total Saints/Colts UNDER (57) WINS in game with 48 combined points scored

--Sunday Super Bowl side Saints (+5) OUTRIGHT upset 31-17 against Colts

--Sunday College BEST BET Canisius (+6) COVER with ease in a near outright upset (73-72 final score)

--Sunday NHL/NBC special Penguins/Capitals OVER (6’) WINS in a 5-4 shootout

--Saturday BEST BET Tennessee-Martin (-1) fails to cover in a 74-68 home setback against a depleted opponent who kicked 4 players off the squad

--Saturday BEST BET William+Mary (-2) COVERS in a 59-56 road triumph at Georgia State

--Saturday ESPN2 Dayton (-3) COVERS with ease in a 90-65 blowout of Xavier

--Saturday ESPN Duke/Boston College UNDER (141’) WINS with ease in low scoring affair with 129 combined points scored

--Saturday ESPN Michigan State/Illinois UNDER (138) fails in a 78-73 contest

--Saturday ESPNU Nevada (+9) barely misses by TWO points in a 76-65 road setback

--Saturday FREE pick Northern Iowa (-10) fails to cover in 55-52 straight-up home win

--Friday BEST BET Brown (+5’) fails to cover in a 85-75 setback where they were actually leading for more than an entire half on the highway

--Friday NBA Rockets (+5) OUTRIGHT in a 101-83 romp at Grizzlies

--Friday NCAA Montana (-4) COVERS with ease in a 75-61 rout of Weber State

--Friday FREE pick Lakers (-8) lose outright at home in rare setback at Staples Center

--Thursday BEST BET Tennessee Tech (+11) fails to cover in a 76-58 contest at Eastern Kentucky

--Thursday ESPN Notre Dame (-3) COVERS with ease in a 83-65 rout of Cincinnati

--Thursday ESPN2 Total Georgia Tech/Duke UNDER (145) fails in a game with 153 combined points scored

--Thursday NBA/TNT Blazers (+2) OUTRIGHT 96-93 upset of Spurs

--Thursday FOX-NET Washington (-10) fails to cover in a game they won outright by just “six” points

--Thursday FREE pick Long Beach State (-5’) loses outright at home versus Cal-Fullerton

--Wednesday BEST BET Alabama-Birmingham (+7’) fails to cover in a “ten point” road setback

--Wednesday BEST BET Idaho/Utah State OVER (131) WINS in a 80-62 shootout

--Wednesday West Virginia (-10) COVERS in a 70-51 blowout of West Virginia

--Wednesday NC State/Virginia UNDER (135) WINS in low scoring 59-47 contest

--Wednesday NBA Warriors (+12) COVER in 110-101 contest at Mavericks

--Wednesday FREE pick South Florida (+13) OUTRIGHT upset at Georgetown

--Tuesday ESPN Mississippi/Kentucky OVER (151) wins in 85-75 shootout

--Tuesday NBA Rockets (-7) wins in a 119-97 home rout of Warriors

--Tuesday Best Bet (Tennessee State0 postponed due to leak in roof

--Tuesday FREE pick Pacers (+1) win with ease in 130-115 NBA home rout of Raptors

--Monday BEST BET Mavericks/Jazz UNDER (199) wins in a 104-92 contest

--Monday ESPN Total Texas/Oklahoma State UNDER (151’) wins with ease in a 72-60 final verdict

--Monday FREE pick Iona (-10) covers with ease in a 72-53 home romp of Canisius

 

All college basketball BEST BETS 4-1 four weeks ago and 12-6 for the entire month of January

 

 

4-1-1 COLLEGE BASKETBALL BEST BETS FIVE WEEKS AGO

 

--Monday no college Best Bet

--Tuesday ESPN South Carolina (+7’) OUTRIGHT upset of #1 ranked Kentucky

--Wednesday Texas A+M (+5’) fails to cover by BUCKET in a 76-69 setback at Oklahoma State

--Thursday Arkansas (+3’) OUTRIGHT 67-62 versus Mississippi State

--Thursday Seton Hall/South Florida OVER (147) WINS in 76-74 overtime tussle

--Friday no college Best Bet

--Saturday Auburn (+1) OUTRIGHT in 58-57 home thriller versus rival Alabama

--Saturday Washington State/Washington OVER (156) PUSHES in 92-64 contest

--Sunday no college Best Bet (but “3-1” overall college performance)

 

 

SUPER BOWL “5 UNIT” TOTALS WIN (48 combined points scored)

 

TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET TOTAL (Super Bowl UNDER 57’ in a 6:25 eastern kickoff on CBS):  This was an unusual postseason where not only did the higher seeds prosper but almost all operated out of “domed” stadiums.  Basically this is the first “true” game in awhile that is actually being played outdoors and I am taking advantage.  We did have an outdoor game in Miami last Sunday and the Pro Bowl as predicted soared above a total that was almost the exact same as we have this evening.  In the Pro Bowl defenses cannot blitz and are forced into “one on one” coverage so the total deserves to be sky high, but I am not sure a championship game is deserving of a similar spot.  Of course the oddsmakers had no choice but to post the highest Super Bowl total ever due to the fact that both offenses have record setting quarterbacks as Drew Brees led the NFL in passer rating (109) and Peyton Manning was not far behind (104.6).  Both signal callers passed for more than 4,300 yards and at least 33 touchdowns which are just some of the mind boggling statistics.  But the bottom line is that both of these teams have played UNDER “inflated” spots this season which tells me that have just enough defensive presence.  New Orleans actually went 3-1 UNDER against opponents from the American Conference with one of them UNDER an enormous spot (57) against New England and Tom Brady (quarterback of the decade).  For those of you who may be wondering there were a ton of points scored in that Saints/Patriots contest (38-17 final score) but the oddsmakers bumped up the number just enough to make some money for themselves and we have a similar scenario here.  The highest spot for Indianapolis this season was 50’ points versus Houston and the game easily went UNDER the total in a 20-17 contest.  It is interesting note that the Colts slipped above the spot in 5 of 6 chances this season when the over/under figure was in the “low to mid 40’s” but that obviously is not the case tonight.  I want to take all of you back to the 2006 NFC Championship game when New Orleans lost at Chicago primarily due to a porous defense that gave up too many points.  Despite their high-octane attack the Saints were never a serious contender for the Super Bowl until this campaign when they hired a marquee DEFENSIVE coordinator.  For those who may not be aware New Orleans head coach Sean Payton actually “deferred” some of his salary so that the team could sign veteran coordinator Gregg Williams who preaches “old school” physical football.  In the preseason Williams hammered home that his personnel needed to be aggressive on every down and go for the football.  It comes as no personal shock that the Saints ended up leading the league in “turnover ratio” and it all has to do with Williams who in 1993 learned his craft while serving as a special teams coach alongside then Houston Oilers defensive coordinator Buddy Ryan.  Of course this is the same Buddy Ryan who whose infamous “46 defense” revolutionized the NFL in the 1980’s and delivered the Chicago Bears of 1985 a Super Bowl title.  Like his mentor Gregg Williams believes in going after the opposing quarterback and that is exactly what the Saints accomplished in the NFC Championship where they constantly “hurried” Bret Favre and at one point drove him to the sidelines with an injury.  In the Divisional playoff victory against Arizona the New Orleans front-four led by 307-pound tackle Sedrick Ellis repeatedly pushed Kurt Warner’s offensive line back in his face.  I am fully aware that both NFC playoff contests involving New Orleans were very high scoring by a key factor is that both Minnesota and Arizona’s stop-units were riddled with INJURIES.  Due to those injuries Arizona became the first team ever to allow at least 45 points in consecutive postseason contests.  Minnesota in the Divisional round saw one of their best pass rushers suffer a significant injury and they were already operating with a rookie middle linebacker.  This particular Super Bowl reminds me of the Patriots/Giants matchup a few years ago as the only way an underdog can win is to rattle a superstar quarterback by shredding his trusted offensive line and presenting so many defensive looks that the final whistle blows before he can figure out how to respond.  The most successful NFL team in the past decade was New England where coach Bill Belichick was a master of disguising a multitude of coverages that would confuse the opposition.  Of course the big media story this week has been the health of Indianapolis star defensive rusher Dwight Freeney but the Colts during the regular season often played without him.  Indianapolis very quietly has a “hard hat” defense that has allowed only 20 points in the playoffs and held the Jets scoreless for an entire half.  The Colts defense is underrated as they operate under Peyton Manning’s shadow.  With more size and speed than unusual (pair of starting tackles at more than 310 pounds) Indy tied for #2 in the entire NFL in scoring defense through the initial 14 games before they ultimately stopped trying.  Here is a whopping "22-4" SYSTEM (84% past five years with a lofty posted total of 49' points or higher) which plays teams like Indianapolis with a poor pass defense whose completion percentage against is 60%-or-worse UNDER the total when off a game where they averaged 8+ yards per pass attempt.  Continuing with Indianapolis they are 7-0 UNDER the past two years after allowing at least 6 yards per play in the previous game.  New Orleans is 6-0 UNDER for the entire season after a game where they allowed 400+ total yards.  Do I hear 7-0 UNDER anyone?!

 

 

SUPER BOWL SIDE (Saints OUTRIGHT upset)

 

SUPER BOWL INTANGIBLE SIDE (Saints +5’ versus Colts in a 6:25 eastern kickoff on CBS):  As you can see in the above analysis the main reason why New Orleans has finally reached their initial Super Bowl has to do with the offseason hiring of defensive coordinator Gregg Williams who alone has made this squad #1 in NFL forced turnovers and we all know how critical turnovers are in big games.  By just mere statistics there is no way that Minnesota actually lost the NFC Championship as they went up and down the field to the tune of 475 total yards, but the 5 turnovers forced by the Saints opportunistic defense cashed their ticket to Miami.  The bottom line regarding this pick is that neither of these sides are true “margin” teams which makes TAKING the available points intriguing.  Indianapolis had 7 different games this season decided by “four or less” points as they rode the exceptional talent of Peyton Manning in the final quarter.  New Orleans registered 5 separate “come from behind” victories where they dug themselves out of an early hole.  The intangibles of this contest have to do in part to the fact that this is the 50th-anniversary season of the old AFL which became a legitimate league in Super Bowl 3 when Joe Namath came through with his infamous guarantee and the Jets pulled off a massive upset in a contest played at MIAMI which is the site of this year’s event.  We have seen plenty of marquee quarterbacks play CLOSE Super Bowls in Miami through the years including Joe Montana’s fourth quarter miracle comeback against San Francisco that put a wrap on the 1980’s.  There is no question that Peyton Manning has the edge over Drew Brees especially in big-game experience, but that does not necessarily mean a spread triumph.  In the early stages of this campaign New Orleans averaged about 150 rush yards per contest which is way above the statistics put up by the almost non-existent Colts running game.  Of course a sustained rushing attack leads to longer drives and New Orleans conceivably has a big edge in that area.  Both of these teams dealt with media criticism of resting players down the stretch which is another indication where there is not that much disparity between these clubs.  One could make a strong argument that Indianapolis should be a two-touchdown favorite in this contest since they had a chance of running the table for the entire season, so that opening price tag set by the oddsmakers (-3’) was in my opinion extremely telling.  For those of you who may not be aware no team has ever won the Super Bowl after losing 3 consecutive regular season contests which puts New Orleans behind the eight-ball so to speak.  But one of those setbacks was against which snapped a 13-game winning streak was triggered by a television analyst that created “bulletin board” material.  NBC commentator Tony Dungy proclaimed that Dallas had absolutely no shot at upsetting the then undefeated Saints in New Orleans.  Following the stunning result one of the Dallas players commented that Dungy’s comments the prior week had actually inspired them.  I bring up the subject of the Colts former head coach because just this week Dungy has proclaimed in the media that Indianapolis should essentially crush New Orleans and hopefully that challenge has reached the Saints locker room.  This is a very large “revenge” battle for New Orleans who made it all the way to the 2006 NFC Championship game.  The last time New Orleans faced the Colts was the heavy hyped regular season 2007 NBC-TV primetime opener where Drew Brees and company were crushed by a 41-10 count.  While on the subject of Brees he almost ended up in Miami but the Dolphins ultimately passed deciding that he would never fully recover from a shoulder injury.  Not only does Brees return to the city of Miami for the biggest game of his life, he also directed an incredible comeback at Dolphins Stadium earlier in the campaign.  My database research indicates that Brees in his career is an excellent 19-5 ATS when facing a marquee opponent that has a win percentage of .700 or higher.  Meanwhile in the past seventeen years Indianapolis is an extremely poor 3-12 ATS/ROAD in the second-half of the season against solid rushing teams that average at least 130 yards per game on the ground and earlier in this analysis I indicated how important running the football is.  I will wrap up this analysis with an UNDEFEATED two-year angle which simply states that New Orleans is 8-0 ATS against “non” conference opposition.  Do I hear 9-0 ATS anyone?!          

 

 

NFL PRO BOWL “BEST BET WIN” ON SUNDAY 1/31

Yet another NFL Best Bet Sunday winner in a 41-34 Pro Bowl shootout

 

TONIGHT’S “3 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET NFL TOTAL (Pro Bowl OVER 57’ in a 7:20 eastern kickoff on ESPN):  Of course the big story here is that for the first time ever the NFL’s All-Star game is being moved one week ahead of the Super Bowl in an effort to generate more television ratings along with more fans in the stands.  Dating all the way back to 1980 the Pro Bowl has annually been held in Hawaii as a “vacation award” for the participating players, but the bottom line is that this move to the mainland has already paid off for the league as there will be a sellout crowd of more than 70-thousand at Dolphins Stadium in Miami.  With that anticipated sellout we are looking at the heaviest attended Pro Bowl in FIFTY YEARS.  As previously mentioned the league also is attempting to transform their All-Star game into a bigger game by playing it the week before Super Sunday.  I for one agree with recent comments by commissioner Roger Goodell in that this year’s Pro Bowl has already garnered more ATTENTION from the public and media as it is being showcased on a weekend where there is usually no football and interest in the NFL is at its highest.  For the mere sake of television ratings the league would love to see a high scoring and competitive Pro Bowl which is one of the reasons why I am so enthusiastic about the OVER even though we have an extremely high posted total.  The bottom line is that with the Pro Bowl being played a full 2 weeks earlier than normal the participating players are in BETTER SHAPE.  Of course the placement of the All-Star game the various elected players who will be participating in next week’s Super Bowl will not be taking the field, but that has just opened up OPPORTUNITY for many personnel who do not get many National-TV opportunities during the regular season.  Houston quarterback Matt Schaub very quietly led the entire NFL with 4,770 passing yards and has been given the opportunity to start for the AFC after the loss of Peyton Manning along with injuries to Tom Brady and Phillip Rivers.  Not only is the Texans quarterback now a starter, so is his favorite target Andre Johnson who actually GREW UP in the Miami area and played collegiately for the Hurricanes.  Johnson along with Marvin Harrison are the only wide receivers in league history to have consecutive 1,500+ yard receptions seasons.  Also at one of the wide out spots for the AFC is the outspoken Chad Ochocinco who loves to give inspired performances both for the fans and more importantly for his own personal attention.  Ochocinco spent the regular season stuck in a Cincinnati offense that was “run oriented” but this evening gets to strut his stuff against league mandated “one on one” coverage.  It is interesting to note that the AFC offense also had 3 running backs (Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew) who have the ability to CATCH the football out of the backfield which increases receiving options.  As far as the NFC offense is concerned they have 3 quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo) who all have STRONG throwing arms suited for DEEP passes.  Just like the AFC receivers, the National Conference wideouts have the benefit of only dealing with “one on one” defensive coverage.  Traditionally Pro Bowls are very high scoring because in an effort to avoid injuries the defenses are not allowed to employ the blitz and also lack the preparation time to install any elaborate schemes.  Last year’s Pro Bowl featured only 51 combined points score but once again this year’s event is being played two weeks earlier where the various offensive personnel are in much better shape.  The tinkering with this year’s Pro Bowl to boost ratings and attendance basically encourages a higher scoring contest than normal

 

12-6 ALL COLLEGE BASKETBALL JANUARY BEST BETS

 

*****Ranked #1 NFL for the entire regular season plus #1 College Bowls up against the nation’s elite handicappers as professionally monitored at (www.sports-watch.com) *****

 

 

41-40 PREMIUM “BASKETBALL” BEST BET SIDES+TOTALS PAST FIFTY-NINE DAYS

--1/8 BEST BET Loyola-Maryland (+9) COVERS in close 65-60 ESPNU televised tussle at Fairfield

--1/9 BEST BET Georgia Tech (+7’) OUTRIGHT 71-67 upset of Duke in an ESPN televised national clash

--1/10 BEST BET Oregon State (+8’) OUTRIGHT 64-57 road upset at rival Oregon in primetime FOX-NET televised Pac-10 special

--1/11 BEST BET Cavaliers/Warriors OVER (212) WINS with ease in 117-114 NBA shootout (19 point Best Bet cover)

--1/12 BEST BET Miami-Ohio (-1’) COVERS in a 55-53 overtime thriller where Miami’s coach tied an all-time league record for victories

--1/13 BEST BET “4 Unit” MARQUEE monster Furman (+6’) COVERS in a close 86-81 home contest versus Davidson

--1/13 BEST BET Suns (-4) lose outright 122-114 at Pacers

--1/13 BEST BET Nebraska (+12) PUSHES in 84-72 final ESPN2 televised home verdict against Kansas

--1/14 BEST BET Arkansas (+14) COVERS with ease in very close 82-80 ESPNU thriller at Mississippi State

--1/16 BEST BET Idaho State (+4) COVERS in a 95-93 home thriller versus “border war” rival Weber State

--1/17 no hoops Best Bet

--1/18 BEST BET Texas/Kansas State OVER (158’) fails in a 71-62 final verdict

--1/19 BEST BET George Mason/Hofstra UNDER (124’) fails miserably in a 90-72 shootout

--1/20 BEST BET Sixers (+1) fail to cover in a 98-90 home setback versus Blazers

--1/20 BEST BET Texas El-Paso (+8’) OUTRIGHT at Memphis snapping the Tigers record 64-game conference winning streak (opening college “5 UNIT” bombshell)

--1/21 BEST BET Tennessee-Martin (+2) failed to cover in a 77-63 road loss against Southeast Missouri State who for the FIRST TIME ALL SEASON was cast as a favorite

--1/22 BEST BET Idaho State (-6’) failed to cover by a HOOK in a 80-74 straight-up home triumph

--1/23 BEST BET Arkansas (+16’) fails to cover in ugly 101-70 setback at Kentucky

--1/23 BEST BET South Florida (+6) OUTRIGHT road upset at Providence

--1/24 No Best Bet

--1/25 BEST BET Hornets/Blazers UNDER (189) fail to hit in a 98-97 contest

--1/26 BEST BET South Carolina (+7’) OUTRIGHT upset 68-62 versus #1 ranked Kentucky

--1/27 BEST BET Texas A+M (+5’) barely fails to cover in a SEVEN point 76-69 ESPN2 televised setback

--1/27 BEST BET Heat (+3’) fails to cover a 111-103 road setback at Raptors in the NBA

--1/28 BEST BET Seton Hall/South Florida OVER (147) WINS in a 76-74 overtime verdict on ESPN2

--1/28 BEST BET Arkansas (+3’) OUTRIGHT 67-62 home triumph versus Mississippi State

--1/29 BEST BET Clippers (pick) lose 111-97 at Timberwolves in the NBA

--1/30 BEST BET Hawks (+5’) fail to cover in ugly 104-86 loss at Magic

--1/30 BEST BET Auburn (+1) COVERS in a 58-57 outright win against rival Alabama

--1/30 BEST BET Washington State/Washington OVER (156) PUSHES in a 92-64 final verdict

--1/31 Football Best Bet WIN but no basketball Best Bet

--2/1 BEST BET Mavericks/Jazz UNDER (199) WINS in a 104-92 final verdict

--2/2 BEST BET Tennessee State POSTPONED by leaky roof

--2/3 BEST BET Alabama-Birmingham (+7’) fails to cover in “ten point” road setback

--2/3 BEST BET BIdaho/Utah State OVER (131) WINS in a 80-62 shootout

--2/4 BEST BET Tennessee Tech (+11) loses by an “eighteen” point margin in road setback

--2/5 BEST BET Brown (+5’) fails to cover a game they led outright on road for more than an entire half

--2/6 BEST BET Tennessee-Martin (-1) failed to cover against opponent who just kicked 4 players off team

--2/6 BEST BET William+Mary (-2) COVERS in a 59-56 road triumph

--2/7 BEST BET Canisius (+6) COVERS with ease in near outright road upset (73-72 final score)

--2/8 BEST BET Siena (-11’) fails to cover even though extending home straight-up streak to 33 in a row

--2/9 BEST BET Thunder/Blazers UNDER (192) WINS with ease in game with just 166 combined points scored

--2/10 BEST BET Baylor/Nebraska UNDER (146) WINS with ease in ESPN2 televised contest with just 108 combined points scored

--2/11 BEST BET Indiana-Purdue (-12) fails to cover by ONE point in an outright 88-77 road triumph

--2/12 BEST BET Idaho State (+4’) fails to cover in 68-59 home loss even though LEAD SCORER returned from injury

--2/13 BEST BET Alabama (-6’) barely fails to cover in a 73-68 straight-up home victory

--2/13 BEST BET Missouri/Baylor UNDER (145) WINS in a very low scoring 64-62 contest

--2/14 BEST BET Marist (+20) COVERS in a 70-51 road contest at Niagra

--2/15 BEST BET Kansas/Texas A+M Aggies OVER (140) fails miserably in a 59-54 final verdict

--2/16 BEST BET Depaul (-4) loses outright at home in game where they blew a 17-point advantage

--2/16 BEST BET William+Mary (+2’) OUTRIGHT 63-60 on the road at George Mason

--2/17 BEST BET Oklahoma State/Iowa State OVER (144’) fails in a 69-64 contest

--2/17 BEST BET Suns/Mavericks UNDER (215’) WINS in ESPN contest with 204 combined points scored

--2/18 BEST BET Florida International (+4) COVERS in 77-74 rivalry contest versus Florida Atlantic

--2/18 BEST BET Syracuse/Georgetown OVER (142’) WINS in a high scoring 75-71 Big East ESPN2 TV clash

--2/19 BEST BET William+Mary/Iona OVER (124) barely misses in ESPNU contest with 122 combined points scored

--2/20 BEST BET Siena (+8) blows halftime outright lead and loses 70-53 at Butler

--2/20 BEST BET Washington (-11’) COVERS with ease in 97-68 ESPN home rout of UCLA

--2/20 BEST BET Presbyterian (+11’) OUTRIGHT 59-55 road upset at Jacksonville State

--2/21 BEST BET Ohio State/Michigan State OVER (135) WINS in a 74-67 CBS telecast

--2/22 BEST BET Norfolk State (-1’) COVERS with ease in a 82-62 home rout of South Carolina State in an ESPNU telecast

--2/23 BEST BET Georgia State (+9’) fails to cover their home finale 75-62 in a game they led outright in the second-half

--2/23 BEST BET Northeastern (-11) loses their home finale and a shot at their first conference regular season title since 1991

--2/24 BEST BET Wichita State (-3) fails to cover in 75-73 road setback

--2/24 BEST BET South Florida/Villanova UNDER (149) WINS with ease in low scoring 74-49 affair

--2/25 BEST BET Tulsa (+18’) COVERS in a 70-52 final verdict at Duke

--2/25 BEST BET Northwestern (-9) COVERS in a 74-57 ESPN televised home wipeout of Iowa

--2/26 BEST BET Timberwolves (+9’) fail to cover in a 109-92 home setback versus Thunder

--2/27 BEST BET Villanova (+5’) fails to cover a 95-77 ESPN road setback at Syracuse

--2/27 BEST BET Georgia Tech (-7’) fails to cover a 73-68 straight-up triumph where they led by TWELVE points with 22-seconds remaining

--2/27 BEST BET William+Mary/NC Wilmington OVER (131’) fails in a 62-51 final verdict

--2/28 BEST BET Indiana (+6’) fails to cover in an ugly 73-57 road setback at struggling Iowa

--3/1 BEST BET Georgetown/West Virginia UNDER (136’) fails in an ESPN contest with 149 combined points scored

--3/1 BEST BET Oklahoma/Texas OVER (145) WINS in a high scoring 87-76 ESPN clash

--3/2 BEST BET Colorado (+5) OUTRIGHT 81-68 at Nebraska snapping a massive 36-game road losing streak

--3/2 BEST BET Murray State (-20’) COVERS with ease in a 84-51 home rout of Tennessee State

--3/3 BEST BET Clippers (+4) lose by 26 points as 4-game home win streak is snapped

--3/3 BEST BET Alabama-Birmingham (-3) loses home finale outright 70-65 versus main rival Memphis

--3/4 BEST BET Dayton (+4) PUSHES in a 60-56 road contest

--3/4 BEST BET New Mexico State/Nevada OVER (163) WINS with ease in a 100-92 shootout

--3/5 BEST BET Georgia Southern (+1’) with six SENIORS suffer double-digit conference tournament loss

--3/7 BEST BET Florida/Kentucky OVER (141) fails by ONE point in a game with 140 combined points scored

--3/7 BEST BET Boston University (-2’) COVERS in a 70-63 conference tournament road triumph

--3/8 BEST BET William+Mary/Old Dominion OVER (117) fails in Colonial Championship with just 113 combined points scored

--3/8 BEST BET William+Mary (+9) COVERS in a 60-53 Colonial conference championship

--3/9 BEST BET Heat (+3’) fails by a BUCKET in a 83-78 road setback

--3/9 BEST BET Rutgers/Cincinnati OVER (131’) WINS in a 69-68 opening round Big East Tournament shootout

 

 

OPENING COLLEGE BASKETBALL 5-UNIT EVENT WINS

As predicted Memphis’ record 64-game conference win streak was snapped ON 1/20

 

*****Ranked #1 NFL for the entire regular season plus #1 College Bowls up against the nation’s elite handicappers as professionally monitored at (www.sports-watch.com)*****

 

 

OPENING COLLEGE HOOP “5 UNIT” EVENT WINS ON 1/20

As you will see in the analysis below Memphis had just snapped the consecutive conference regular season win record that was held for 56-YEARS.  On Wednesday as predicted that record 64-game winning tear that began in 2006 was snapped by a Texas El-Paso contingent that had FIVE players with Memphis roots plus almost an entire coaching staff who at one time was employed by the Tigers.  Texas El-Paso (+8’) won OUTRIGHT and in a personal MONEY LINE (+320) wager

 

TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” REDZONE COLLEGE BEST BET (Texas-El Paso +8’ at Memphis in a 8:05 eastern tipoff broadcast on CBS College Sports):  This past Saturday evening Memphis broke Kentucky’s 56-YEAR old record for consecutive regular season victories (52) in conference play which puts them in line to finally lose a game which could very well be this evening against an opponent who has incredible “Memphis ties” which will be detailed in this analysis segment.  Including the Conference USA postseason tournament, Memphis has won an incredible 64 in a row against league opposition with the last setback way back in March of 2006.  Of course the Memphis head coach during this streak was the same John Calipari who is now employed at Kentucky and is in the running for “coach of the year”.  While Calipari proved to be an excellent recruiter it remains to be seen if his replacement Josh Pastner can carry on the winning tradition.  The odds seem to be against his long term success especially since Calipari exited the Memphis program in a cloud of controversy making one think the Tigers will soon face the wrath of an NCAA investigation.  For the moment Memphis continues to make a mockery of what is a very weak conference but without Calipari at the controls the Tigers suddenly have become a financial drain for bettors.  Something has to give this evening because both Memphis (0-8 ATS) and Texas-El Paso (0-6 ATS) are currently mired in long slides against the spread.  With Memphis continuing to win games straight-up the oddsmakers successfully have been “inflating” their price tags, but with them laying only “single digits” this evening my personal attention has been grabbed.  Tony Barbee is in year #4 as the Texas El-Paso head coach and he just happened to be on the Memphis bench the last time the Tigers suffered a conference loss. Barbee was a Memphis assistant from 2001 through 2006 so he has special MOTIVATION to finally put an end to the Tigers 64-game Conference USA winning streak.  But the connections do not end there as UTEP’s assistant coach Tony Madlock actually was a four-year letterman for the Tigers from 1988-through-1992.  Another current El Paso assistant Milt Wagner was actually director of basketball operations at Memphis from 2001-through-2006.  UTEP’s current basketball director of operations Mike Babul was assistant director at Memphis in 2003-2004.  Finally Nathaniel Root (UTEP assistant director of basketball operations) was a PLAYER for Memphis from 200-1to-2003.  One would think that the fact that most of the current Miners coaching staff has ties to Memphis would be enough, but the story does not end there.  Amazingly FIVE different players on the current Texas-El Paso roster actually call Memphis home and a pair of them (Jeremy Williams, Myron Strong) will be making their first trip back home in Miner uniforms.  Strong says he grew up watching the Tigers and dreamed of playing for them.  Williams who was a high school teammate of Strong says quote “this is an experience you live for”.  Williams also says that nothing would be better than to come back home and snap the Memphis record setting win streak.  One of the reasons why the posted line on tonight’s contest is only “single digits” has to do with the fact that these two teams statistically are very similar according to the Conference USA rankings.  UTEP is ranked #4 in average points per game while Memphis checks in at #5.  UTEP is ranked #3 in conference shooting percentage from the field while Memphis is close behind at #5 in that category.  The Miners have played well against Memphis the past two seasons.  Last year the Tigers tamed the Miners 70-63 in El-Paso.  Two years ago in Memphis and with the Tigers having a #1 national ranking, UTEP led 60-58 with 3:45 to play and actually trailed by ONE point with 1:18 remaining in what turned out to be a nailbiter.  Now you know why I am personally placing a pair of wagers on Texas-El Paso this evening including the “money line” (+320) which would give me an enormous return on a rather small investment.  Turning to the database here is a 75-PERCENT SYSTEM (35-12 past dozen years) which plays ON road teams like Texas El-Paso off a “no cover” where they won straight-up on the scoreboard as a favorite, against an opponent off consecutive “non” covers where the team also won outright cast as a favorite.  That system supports Texas-El Paso who is also a whopping 9-1 ATS/ROAD the past three years after a game where the defense allowed less than 26 “first half” points.  To recap we have Texas-El Paso who has FIVE players with Memphis ties along with almost the entire coaching staff.  All of those Miner personnel will be seeking to finally put an end to what is now college basketball’s longest regular season conference winning streak (52) in FIFTY-SIX YEARS

 

NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF AFC PRIMETIME SWEEP

A special “5 UNIT” Best Bet bombshell on the Colts (-3’) to cover the first-half cashed a WINNING ticket as well as a “3 Unit” major move on Indianapolis in a 20-3 rout of the Ravens (UNDER the total also comes through)

 

TONIGHT’S NFL “3 UNIT” TRIPLE PLAY MAJOR SIDE (Colts -6 at home versus Ravens in an 8:15 eastern kickoff on CBS):  Of course there has been major controversy in Indianapolis in regards to the squad coughing up a chance to run the table in the regular season where they rested regulars down the stretch.  But the bottom line is that due to that strategy Indianapolis is much HEALTHIER than tonight’s opponent.  Last weekend we all saw Baltimore pull off a stunning upset of a New England contingent that had won 23 consecutive home playoff outings.  But due to massive injuries that Ravens victory was not nearly as impressive as one would have thought.  While the Colts were getting “brow beaten” in the national media for letting up on the gas pedal, the Patriots lost their #1 receiving option and NFL leader Wes Welker on the final Sunday of the regular campaign.  With his absence all that Baltimore had to do was double-team New England’s other star receiving option Randy Moss who just happened to MISS a practice session late in the week due to injury.  New England was extremely defensive when CBS studio analyst Charley Casserly reported a couple of weeks ago that superstar Tom Brady was playing with 3 cracked ribs.  No matter what the Patriots said it was obvious that Brady was not near 100% last weekend.  On the other side of the football New England was operating with a patchwork defense that was torn apart by veterans simply getting too old to perform at a high level.  Thus once again it is not worth reading too far into what appeared to be a superlative effort by Baltimore last weekend.  Even though it did not come into play during the Wildcard playoff Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco completed only FOUR passes in part due to hip injury that clearly affected his throwing motion.  One of Baltimore’s few solid receiving options (veteran tight end Todd Heap) ended up getting his back twisted and comes into this evening NOT at 100% efficiency.  Once again even though it did not become a major issue last week since they grabbed an early 24-point lead courtesy of turnovers the fact of the matter is that Baltimore’s defensive secondary is BANGED UP which should have Peyton Manning salivating.  Even though Indianapolis struggled for the most part on third-down conversions, there is a reason why Manning is attempting to become the 15th player to be named MVP and win the Super Bowl in the same season (most recent way back in 1999).  Even though the Ravens stop-unit led by the emotional Ray Lewis has the ability to harass opposing quarterbacks, Peyton Manning receives excellent protection and no one is better at making pre-snap adjustments.  Give Manning time and he will shred a Ravens secondary relying on RESERVE cornerbacks Chris Carr and Frank Walker who have been forced into the starting lineup.  Even thought it seems like an eternity, Peyton Manning in the regular season finale completed 14-of-18 passes in the SNOW at Buffalo before getting pulled in the second stanza.  I am aware that Indianapolis is operating with a rookie head coach but the fact of the matter is that Jim Caldwell has been on the Colts staff since 2002.  The amazing coaching continuity that the Colts have enjoyed is major even though often unheralded in the national press.  I am also aware that Indianapolis is 0-3 in the playoffs following a Bye week but all that is going to do is inspire this group who comes in with a collective chip on their shoulder.  According to my database research the fact that Indianapolis pulled their defensive starters a couple of weeks ago in the snow makes them an incredible percentage wager this evening.  In the past three years Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS after allowing at least 6 yards per play in the prior game.  Do I hear 8-0 ATS anyone?!

 

NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF NFC (Saints in a 45-14 rout)

 

NFL PLAYOFF PERCENTAGE SIDE (Saints -7 at home versus Cardinals in a 4:35 eastern kickoff on FOX):  The key to this selection surrounds the critical area of TURNOVERS which can swing a football game in an instant.  Of the twelve teams that made the playoffs Arizona has committed the most miscues as their turnover margin (-7) is horrible.  On the other hand the opportunistic Saints ranked #2 in the entire NFL with 39 takeaways and a PLUS-ELEVEN turnover margin.  A new defensive coordinator along with new personnel such as safety Darren Sharper (9 interceptions, 3 picks returned for score) literally transformed the team.  The New Orleans defense has gone from being the primary weakness to one that has made “game changing” plays.  Regular clients know that I personally loaded up on Arizona one week ago as they banded together even though star wide receiver Anquan Boldin (ankle, knee) was unable to play.  It will be much tougher for Arizona to cover for Boldin once again this week since they are now playing on the road.  As mentioned in last Sunday’s analysis many of the Arizona players were irked that Green Bay treated both the regular season finale and a preseason exhibition contest seriously.  The shoe is on the other foot this week as New Orleans is now the squad that has to prove themselves as that amazing 13-0 start to the campaign suddenly became ancient history.  One of the main reasons why New Orleans struggled down the stretch was due to major injuries to the offense which cost tight end Jeremy Shockey (toe) 3 games.  Both Shockey and wide receiver Lance Moore are expected to be back on the field late this afternoon as well as impact rusher Pierre Thomas who cracked three ribs in a late season setback.  While on the subject of New Orleans running backs veteran Deuce McAllister will be in uniform to add EMOTION on the sidelines as a ceremonial team captain.   This was a class move by New Orleans who originally dropped the veteran running back following the 2008 campaign.  Of course the Saints have much to prove after going 2-3 down the stretch while struggling in both victories.  I love the CONFIDENCE shown by Saints head coach Sean Payton who actually gave his players most of last week off.  One will never forget that infamous Monday Night affair which marked the Saints return to the Superdome following Hurricane Katrina which destroyed the city and there will be plenty of raw emotion inside that building late this afternoon.  One could make a strong argument that the Saints would not have survived in New Orleans if not gaining the services of quarterback Drew Brees who has done an amazing job with local HUMANITARIAN causes off the field of play which has created an extremely strong bond between Brees and the community.  Brees set an NFL record for completion percentage (.706) and today will face an Arizona defense that was shredded a week ago (45 points allowed) coughing up a sizeable early lead.   Going into last weekend Arizona had no less than FIVE INJURED players and they have had a “short week” to prepare.  Last weekend there was no way Arizona should have been extended into overtime as veteran kicker Neil Rackers missed a very short field goal attempt.  One has to wonder about the mental capacity of Rackers this week which gives the Saints an edge in special teams.  Here is a 74-PERCENT SYSTEM (34-12 past decade) that goes AGAINST road underdogs of 3’-to-10 points like Arizona off an upset win as an underdog, and facing an opponent off a road loss.  But the big news from the database is the fact that New Orleans is 6-0 ATS the past two years when shaking off an outright road setback.  Do I hear 7-0 ATS anyone?!

 

 

COLLEGE BASKETBALL REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR “COVERS” ON 1/16 (95-93 thriller)

 

TONIGHT’S “4 UNIT” REDZONE COLLEGE BASKETBALL BEST BET (Idaho State +4 at home versus Weber State in a 9:05 eastern tipoff):  To give you an idea how intense this rivalry is they call this Big Sky Conference clash the “border war”.  One year ago in front of their own home fans Idaho State lost on what was basically a SCORING MISTAKE which is one of the reasons why they “circled” tonight’s rematch on their calendar as soon as the schedule came out.  In that bitter home setback a year ago a player from Weber State was allowed to stay in the game even though technically he fouled out.  That player from Weber State actually nailed a pair of critical THREE POINT shots in crunch time when he should have been sitting on the bench.  I am fully aware that Idaho State checks in tonight with an awful 4-13 overall record but one can argue that they had one of the nation’s toughest pre-conference schedules.  All Idaho State had to do in the “non” league portion of their schedule is play on the ROAD against quality opposition (Iowa State, Bradley, Brigham Young, Utah State, Notre Dame, Utah, Southern California, Oregon) who have a long term track record of success in conference’s way above the Big Sky in overall talent.  What makes Idaho State a lethal home underdog late tonight surrounds the fact that they have hit at least 70-PERCENT from the free-throw line in 12 of the past 17 outings.  Despite an overall record that appears to be a disaster Idaho State has actually WON THE REBOUNDING BATTLE by an average of nearly one board per contest.  This team has also hit near 36% of their long range THREE POINT opportunities (120 of 335) which is not all that bad.  Idaho State if coming off a hotly contested road game at one of the Big Sky’s league leaders and the Bengals actually trailed by just two points with less than 2-minutes left on the clock. As mentioned at the top of this analysis Idaho State was robbed at home in this rivalry a year ago which saw Weber State win both clashes.  That actually snapped a run of 10 consecutive games in this bitter series where the clubs alternated wins-and-losses.  Due to the unusual circumstances which Idaho State lost at home to their main rivals last campaign, this is my college basketball “revenge game of the year”

 

NFL WILDCARD PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR COVERS

The opening week of the NFL playoffs wrapped up with the Wildcard System Game of the Year as Arizona (+2’) won OUTRIGHT in a memorable 51-45 overtime shootout which saw the Cardinals both blow a sizeable early lead along with a short field goal attempt at the end of regulation.  But the incredible 22-3 System successfully COVERED the spread yet again

 

TODAY’S “4 UNIT” REDZONE NFL BEST BET (Cardinals +2’ at home versus Packers in a 4:40 eastern kickoff on FOX):  Green Bay’s first team has outscored Arizona 71-10 in five quarters during both the preseason and regular campaign.  In addition both of yesterday’s “rematches” from week-seventeen resulted in broom job.  But the bottom line is that it is costly to overlook an Arizona squad that defied the odds a year ago and went all the way to the Super Bowl.  It may seem like an eternity but the national assumption a year ago at this time was that Arizona was not capable of winning on the road, so they went to Carolina and shocked the Panthers as a prohibitive playoff underdog.  We have had a radical line swing in this NFC Wildcard contest which actually saw Arizona open at most offshore locations as a 2’ point favorite.  Due to word this morning that Cardinals star wide receiver Anquan Boldin (ankle/knee) most likely would not be in the starting lineup, the home team suddenly became a sizeable underdog.  But according to star quarterback Kurt Warner his Cardinals planned for today’s game WITHOUT Boldin being involved so I am not going to overreact to that injury.  After doing some serious digging I can confirm that 4 of the 5 Arizona players who were on the injured list WILL participate late this afternoon including star defensive back Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie who was carted off the field a week ago with what appeared to be a season-ending knee problem.  In my mind the bigger news is that Green Bay’s defensive secondary is NOT 100% healthy including star Charles Woodson who is tied for the NFL lead with 9 interceptions.  Woodson left last Sunday’s contest late in the second quarter with a sore shoulder and he is the key cog of the Packers stop-unit.  With Boldin most likely out of the lineup, Woodson will be assigned to Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald so his overall health is critical.  I will admit that Green Bay has responded well to their new defensive coordinator Dom Capers who has always been successful in that area dating back to his days directing the initial campaigns of the Carolina franchise.  One thing Capers loves to do out of the “3-4” alignment is employ the BLITZ but Kurt Warner is one of the league’s best signal callers reading those blitz packages.  According to Warner he is more confident of making plays against the Packers secondary as opposed to that of San Francisco who defeated him in a Monday Night regular season telecast.  Warner is participating in his 12th playoff game and there is a shot at age 38 that this will be his final postseason push.  Of course this pick is dangerous since Green Bay is on a current 7-1 tear where the passing ratio of quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been nothing short of spectacular.  But in the beginning of this season Rodgers was constantly harassed operating behind a shaky offensive line that repeatedly gave him very little time to throw the football and the fact of the matter is that Arizona’s stop-unit has a grand total of 45 SACKS.  On the other side of the football Arizona led the entire NFL in “red zone” offense with 38 touchdowns in 53 opportunities (70-PERCENT efficiency inside the opposition 20-yard line).  Prior to last Sunday’s home game which was played late in the afternoon, the Cardinals were informed that the possibility of gaining an opening-round bye was remote which caused head coach Ken Whisenhunt to play very CONSERVATIVE.  Thus I am not going to overreact to last week’s rout by the Packers who played to win in the desert southwest.  With Arizona operating a “vanilla” attack giving away no secrets last Sunday, they are actually in an advantageous spot late this afternoon.  This has been a staggering campaign for the Cardinals franchise who did NOT lose games on consecutive weeks since way back in 1975.  In addition Arizona is only the second Super Bowl loser in the past nine years to actually make the playoffs in the following season.  Turning to the database here is an UNDEFEATED database angle which sees Arizona 6-0 ATS/HOME the past three years after scoring 3-or-less opening half points in the prior game.  Here is a whopping 22-3 SYSTEM (88% last decade involving a pair of quality team that have won 60-to-75% of their games) which plays ON teams like Arizona revenging a loss where they scored less than two touchdowns, with a near pick-em line of +3/-3 which is the case today   

 

5 UNIT BCS CHAMPIONSHIP BOMBSHELL WINS

2010 PREMIUM COLLEGE FOOTBALL CONCLUDES 12-5

ALABAMA covers the BCS Championship

 

 

12-5 PREMIUM COLLEGE FOOTBALL IN 2010

 

--1/1 “5 UNIT” Bowl event Northwestern/Auburn OVER (55) WINS in a 38-35 shootout

--1/1 ROSE BOWL BEST BET Ohio State (+4) OUTRIGHT 26-17 upset of Oregon

--1/1 BOWL PARLAY Florida State (+3) OUTRIGHT 33-21 upset in Bobby Bowden’s finale

--1/1 BOWL PARLAY Penn State (-1) COVERS in a 19-17 triumph over LSU

--1/2 BEST BET East Carolina (+7’) COVERS in an overtime 20-17 thriller

--1/2 Cotton Bowl Total Mississippi/Oklahoma State UNDER (51) WINS in very low scoring 21-7 contest (23 point cover)

--1/2 South Florida (-7) COVERS in a 27-3 rout of Northern Illinois

--1/2 Liberty Bowl Total Arkansas/East Carolina UNDER (63’) WINS with ease in 20-17 overtime game (26’ point cover)

--1/4 TCU (-7) loses outright 17-10 in the Fiesta Bowl

--1/4 Fiesta Bowl Boise State/Texas Christian UNDER (54) WINS with ease in very low scoring 17-10 contest (27 point cover)

--1/5 Georgia Tech (-5’) loses outright versus Iowa in the Orange Bowl (first time in 2 years Yellow Jackets fail to cover against quality defensive opponent)

--1/5 Proposition first score field goal or safety (+180) fails

--1/6 Troy State/Central Michigan UNDER (63) fails in 44-41 Double-OT shootout  (1:17 away from covering in regulation)

--1/7 Special “5 UNIT” BCS Championship Best Bet Texas/Alabama OVER (23) in the first half WINS with 30 combined points scored in the opening half

--1/7 BCS Championship Alabama (-4) COVERS in 37-21 triumph versus Texas

--1/7 BCS Championship Texas/Alabama UNDER (17’) in second-half fails to cover

--1/7 BCS Championship Proposition special teams or defensive touchdown (+135) WINS

 

Ranked #1 NFL and #2 college football for the entire regular season up against the nation’s elite handicappers as professionally monitored at (www.sports-watch.com)

 

30-19 NFL PREMIUM WAGERS SINCE MID-DECEMBER

 

58-PERCENT ALL PREMIUM FOOTBALL (1602115) FINAL NINETY-SEVEN DAYS

 

 

NEW YEARS SWEEP

Including special “5 UNIT” bombshell Northwestern/Auburn OVER (55) in a 38-35 shootout

Plus a ROSE BOWL BEST BET as Ohio State (+4) wins OUTRIGHT

 

Football Best Bet sides-and-totals incredible “17-6” in month of December

Ranked #1 NFL and #2 college football for the entire regular season up against the nation’s elite handicappers as professionally monitored at (www.sports-watch.com)

 

 

3-1 BOWL POSTSEASON “5 UNIT” BEST BET BOMBSHELLS

Including the BCS Championship OVER (23) WINNING on 1/7 as combined 30 points were tallied in the opening half

 

 

ALABAMA COVERS THE BCS CHAMPIONSHIP

 

COLLEGE FOOTBALL NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP (Alabama -4 versus Texas in the BCS Championship kicking off at 8:35 eastern on ABC-TV):  They say you cannot handicap turnovers which are critical in postseason football contests such as this.  In 492 career carries Alabama’s Heisman Trophy winning rusher Mark Ingram has turned the football over just ONCE.  In 314 career pass attempts Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy has thrown only FOUR interceptions which means that the well coached Crimson Tide do NOT commit critical mistakes.  After five consecutive years where the BCS Championship produced upsets, the FAVORITE has successfully covered the spread in consecutive seasons and I expect that pattern to continue.  So far the BCS-sanctioned Bowls have seen underdogs pull off outright upsets except for one squad (Florida) that just happens to operate out of the highly-regarded Southeastern Conference.  I will be the first to admit that the SEC as a whole is not as solid as in recent seasons and their overall Bowl record this campaign (5-4) is certainly reflective of that.  But the fact of the matter is that Alabama and Florida have proven to be a step ahead of the entire college football field since their respective head coaches are the best RECRUITERS in the game.  There is certainly plenty of motivation for the Crimson Tide as they try to wipe out memories of last year’s horrible Sugar Bowl performance where they were dominated by an opponent out of a “non” BCS aligned conference.  In addition tonight is a rare shot for Alabama to finally defeat Texas on the field as dating all the way back to 1902 they have gone “0-7-1” against the Longhorns (last encounter back in 1982).  The key to this selection has to do with “the pits” where games are ultimately won or lost on both the offensive and defensive lines.  Since they had to replace 3 offensive line starters it was originally thought that Alabama would struggle on offense but that line was good enough to produce a Heisman Trophy campaign by running back Mark Ingram.  For the most part Ingram sealed his Heisman by rushing for 113 yards and three touchdowns in that shocking SEC Championship game upset of Florida where he had a game changing 69 yard catch-and-run.  The Crimson Tide put up 32 points against the nation’s top-ranked Division I-A defense which was allowing less than 10 points per contest.  Of course Alabama’s defense as expected was also spectacular during the regular season permitting just 11 points per contest and that stop-unit certainly neutralized Florida star quarterback Tim Tebow.  Tonight on ABC the announcing crew is going to be talking a lot about 354-POUND Alabama senior defensive tackle Terrence Cody who has one more chance to perform on the national stage. What I like most about Alabama’s defense is that they “disguise” coverages similar to what the NFL New England Patriots have done for years at the professional level.  I can confirm that a substantial amount of offshore money has been plunked down on Texas since they have marquee quarterback Colt McCoy who has received non-stop national press coverage.  But in the Big 12 Championship game against a top-notch defense McCoy was sacked NINE different times.  Even though he does not receive much national coverage Alabama’s starting quarterback just happens to be UNDEFEATED as a starter dating back to his high school days inside the state of Texas.  Greg McElroy operated on the high school level for three years behind future Missouri star signal caller Chase Daniel and then served as a caddy for two years behind John Parker Wilson at Alabama.  To make a long story short McElroy used his time on the sideline to be more strategic and has made himself a cerebral player.  After some ugly moments in the traditional Iron Bowl rivalry against Auburn, McElroy literally saved the Tide’s season leading a 15-play/79 yard drive that featured 3 different “third down conversions” and was capped by a 4-yard touchdown pass with a mere 84-seconds remaining on the clock.  Flush with CONFIDENCE McElroy was on fire early against Florida opening the game with an 18-yard completion and deftly mixed pass and run on the drive which led to immediate points on the scoreboard.  Of course McElroy is not as popular a name as McCoy which has helped create some “value” in tonight’s line even though the Tide are favored.  I will admit that in the last 7 BCS National Championship clashes, the team with a Heisman Trophy winner has ended up losing 6 different times.  Even though Alabama’s Mark Ingram was this year’s winner, he is NOT a quarterback which is rare for the Heisman award which almost exclusively is given to signal callers annually.  In the Sun Bowl contest featuring Heisman hopeful Toby Gerhart, the Stanford running back gained more than 100 yards on the ground so I for one am not worried about Ingram this evening.  I am aware that Texas defended the run better than anyone in the country permitting just 62 yards per contest, but consider that most Big 12 Conference offenses operate out of the pass-oriented “spread” attack so that aforementioned figure is a bit skewed.  The fact of the matter is that Texas and the end of last season lost a pair of defensive linemen and a tackle to the NFL draft.  That spells big trouble this evening as the Longhorns attempt to defend an Alabama run-oriented attack which tends to wear down the opposition by the time the fourth quarter arrives.   The last time Alabama was in the “preseason” Top-10 was back in the year 2000 and now a decade later are in the National Championship.  At long last a proud Alabama program finally broke through with a Heisman Trophy winner and they are way overdue to walk away with a National Championship trophy.  As mentioned earlier Nick Saban is one of the game’s best RECRUITERS and it comes as no shock that in a very short period of time he has lifted Alabama to elite status

 

It was a New Years Day SWEEP highlighted by a “5 UNIT” Best Bet event (38-35 shootout in the Outback Bowl)

 

TODAY’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET TOTAL (Northwestern versus Auburn OVER 54’ in an 11 AM eastern kickoff on ESPN):  It was a little more than one year ago when Auburn was shutout by bitter rival Alabama which ended up sealing the fate of head coach Tom Tuberville who was fired.  The Tigers entered this campaign with a brand new coaching staff which included offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn.  To make a long story short Malzahn was the architect of Tulsa’s attack that led all of college football in total offense both in 2007 and 2008.  Malzahn’s elaborate schemes made an instant impact in the “non” conference portion of Auburn’s schedule when the Tigers went OVER the total in the initial 4 contests.  Most of you reading this analysis know that the Southeastern Conference is known for its physical defense which is one of the main reasons why Auburn played above the spot just twice during league play.  The bottom line is that the Tigers this morning are seeking to play OVER in every “non league” outing this entire season which includes a massive 63 point late season effort against Furman in a contest that was not on the big board.  Senior quarterback Chris Todd was ranked 4th in the SEC Conference with 21 touchdown passes while senior Ben Tate also had a #4 league ranking with more than 1,200 rush yards on the ground.  Auburn for the entire regular season averaged an eye opening 33 points and 432 yards